The USA, Germany and France are likely to remain the top three markets for UK services over the next decade, a new report has predicted.
In its latest Trade Navigator report, HSBC confirms that the UK economy performed better in 2017 than many forecasters had expected, thanks to a strong contribution from exporters.
British exporters have, HSBC says, found themselves in a “sweet spot” – enjoying the benefits of a weak pound and buoyant demand in the UK’s principal markets and not yet facing potential new Brexit-related trade barriers.
Although Brexit continues to dominate the outlook for UK trade, the HSBC survey of some 6000 businesses across a broad range of industry sectors in 26 markets, found what it terms “largely positive” expectations for trade in the short term.
That short-term optimism reflects a healthy global economic environment, it says, while the longer-term outlook suggests that the UK should gain from its strong position as a service provider.
Between them, the USA, Germany and France are anticipated to account for some 30% of total UK services sales by 2030.
In terms of growth, HSBC forecasts that the strongest demand for services will be from India and China, with UK service exports to those countries projected to rise by about 10% per year.
The next decade is expected to see UK service exports globally rise by 130%, the report estimates.
Views about the UK’s post-Brexit future are mixed, with 38% of the UK companies polled expecting Brexit to have a negative impact, 28% thinking it will have no impact and 33% anticipating a positive impact.
The latest HSBC Trade Navigator report for the UK can be accessed at www.business.hsbc.com.
