- BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey for Q1 2012 shows encouraging signs of growth, but the pace of recovery is still too slow
- Caroline Williams, CEO Norfolk Chamber of Commerce: “Norfolk and the rest of the UK has the potential to recover, but to achieve that the government has to set businesses free to grow”
The British Chambers of Commerce’s new Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) released today (Tuesday) shows encouraging results for Q1 2012, with most balances recording increases on the last quarter. The new survey, comprising almost 8,000 responses from businesses across the UK, shows a welcome improvement on the results of Q4 2011 which pointed towards stagnation.
While the results are more encouraging than the previous quarter, they show that growth in Norfolk and the rest of the UK is still too weak, with the balances still below those seen in 2007 before the recession. Many manufacturing balances are now at a satisfactory level, but the service sector balances are sluggish.
Balances measuring domestic and export activity across firms showed welcome increases, and more businesses are looking to invest in employing more staff, training, and plant and machinery. However, cashflow is still a real problem, and despite concerns about inflation decreasing, recent increases in oil and food prices may alter this over the next few months.
Domestic orders The Norfolk manufacturing sector saw an increase in domestic sales and orders from the last quarter. This is also reflected across the rest of the East of England and at a national level. However Norfolk’s service sector saw a reduction in both sales and orders from the previous quarter. Nationally the service sector showed a small measure of improvement:
- Norfolk manufacturing home delivery results went up 20 points to +32%, and home orders rose 13 points to +19%. However in the Norfolk service sector, the home deliveries balance dipped slightly from 18% to 15% and the home orders balance dropped from 9% to 6%
Exports Export sales and orders in both the manufacturing and the service sectors continue to improve with Norfolk, East of England and the national results all showing increases from 2011:
- Balances recording exporting activity for Norfolk manufacturers strengthened in Q1 2012 and rose by 16 points to +37% – a level not seen since Q3 2010. The Norfolk service sector, whilst improving its orders, showed a slow down on actual deliveries in the last 3 months
- Though stronger than domestic orders, Norfolk exports are still below levels seen in the BCC’s Quarterly Economic Surveys prior to the recession
Employment Figures for the last 3 months continue to show a downwards trend in both the Norfolk service sector and the manufacturing sector. However Norfolk employers are still showing some optimism for improvement in these figures, with both sectors recording increases:
- The manufacturing employment balance is stronger at +14%, than the service sector balance, which is still weak at 3%
- Firms in both sectors are more optimistic about future recruitment than during Q4 2011. The balance of Norfolk manufacturing firms looking to increase workforces increased by 7 points to +19%, a level not seen since Q3 2011. In the Norfolk service sector, figures surged by 15 points to +25% – a level last seen in Q1 2011
Business confidence & investment Confidence across both sectors improved in the last 3 months. Norfolk businesses are showing optimism in both turnover and their expected profitability for the next quarter. Both sectors are also advising that investments in plant, machinery and training are also increasing:
- The balance measuring Norfolk manufacturers’ expectations for increasing turnover and profitably jumped to levels last seen in Q4 2010. Among the service sector, turnover confidence increased to +54% (last seen in Q4 2010), and profitability confidence rose to 50% (back to levels in Q4 2010)
- More Norfolk firms are looking to increase investment. Plans by Norfolk manufacturers to invest in plant and machinery increased to +27% (the strongest level since Q4 2010), and intentions to invest in training increased by 10 points to +31%. For the service sector in Norfolk, the results were mixed with the balance measuring investment in plant and machinery dipping by 2 points to +9%, whilst the training balance rose 2 points to +25%
Cashflow Balances measuring cashflow (the movement of cash in an out of a business) remain weak, and are now in negative territory for both the manufacturing and the service sector in Norfolk. Overall both the Norfolk manufacturing sector and the service sectors have advised that they expect to have to increase prices over the next 3 months. This is reflected at a regional and national level as well. Norfolk manufacturers in particular, have advised that price increases were expected due to raw material costs rising:
- The manufacturing cashflow balance fell heavily by 25 points, to -22%. The services cashflow balance also dropped by 13 points, to -16%
- Both the sectors reported a decrease in their operating capacity, with only 27% of Norfolk manufacturers and 36% of the Norfolk service sector operating at full capacity
Commenting on the results, Caroline Williams, CEO of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce, said: “It is encouraging to see that businesses are feeling more confidence at the start of 2012 than they were at the end of 2012. Norfolk businesses are showing optimism in both turnover and their expected profitability for the next quarter. Both sectors are advising that investments in plant, machinery and training are also expected to increase. However, the Norfolk economy is still facing huge challenges and the recovery is still too slow.
The results of the Quarterly Economic Survey point to a welcome but modest improvement in the Norfolk economic situation. The UK economy will likely avoid a recession, though the erratic construction figures may distort the ONS estimate. On the basis of this survey, the British Chambers of Commerce are now predicting quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1 2012, in line with the OBR’s recent forecasts. However, growth is likely to remain low for some time, and a return to a more normal pace is unlikely until 2013.
The BCC forecast for 2012 GDP is 0.6%. Their prediction is lower than that of the OBR* for two reasons. Firstly, we are still concerned that the unresolved problems in the eurozone may trigger new upheavals later this year. Secondly, in view of the increases in oil and food prices since January, our current forecast is that the fall in UK inflation over the next 12-18 months will be slower than first expected.
“With domestic demand in Norfolk remaining weak and unemployment likely to increase over the next year, every effort must be made to boost growth and empower the private sector to create jobs. While the government perseveres with efforts to cut the deficit, it must reallocate priorities, within the spending envelope, towards growth enhancing policies. Red tape must be cut more aggressively, the credit easing programme must be made more effective, and the MPC must do more to ensure that the huge QE programme encourages increased lending to viable SMEs.”
