Chamber News: Chamber EU Survey: Business vote tightens as referendum campaign heads to the finish line

• Final BCC pre-referendum survey shows that, with less than 50 days to go, a majority of businesspeople surveyed in the East of England (46%) say they will vote for the UK to Remain in the European Union
• Voting intentions have tightened amongst the businesspeople surveyed – with Leave now polling seven points higher (41%) than in the BCC’s February survey
• Previous survey in February had Remain on 55%, Leave with 34%, and 12% don’t know
• The vast majority – over 93% – of those East of England businesspeople surveyed by the neutral business organization are now unlikely to change their vote

Over 93% of the East of England senior businesspeople polled in a major new British Chambers of Commerce survey say they are unlikely to change how they will vote before the June 23rd referendum.

The BCC’s detailed findings indicate that 46.10% of the East of England businesspeople polled would vote to Remain, down from 55% in February 2016, and 40.90% would vote to Leave – up from 34% on the BCC’s previous survey.

The East of England findings reflect the national findings which indicated that 54.1% of UK businesspeople polled would vote to Remain, down from 60% in February 2016, and 37% would vote to Leave – up from 30% on the BCC’s previous survey.

The data on voting intentions also shows some divisions based on size and export interests. Those trading with other EU markets express the strongest support for ‘Remain’, with the strongest levels of support for ‘Leave’ among those that do not. Businesspeople representing large firms are significantly more likely to vote ‘Remain’ than those in micro businesses.

The findings, from an April 2016 survey of over 2,200 leading businesspeople, also show that individuals are now strongly committed to their voting preferences. Just 6.1% of respondents said they could change their mind.

Commenting on the results, Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said:

“As the EU referendum campaign enters the final straight, the race for the business vote has clearly tightened.

“Although a majority of the East of England businesspeople surveyed continue to express a preference to remain in the European Union, the gap between Remain and Leave has narrowed significantly in recent weeks.

“While only a minority of businesspeople report that the referendum campaign has had a material impact on their firms to date, significant numbers say that they expect significant impacts in the aftermath of the vote – particularly if Leave carries the day.

“Whichever outcome prevails, Westminster must shift its attention back to the economy on June 24 without delay. Growth is softening, and Westminster’s referendum ‘tunnel vision’ over the past year has meant that far too many key economic issues have been given short shrift or delayed altogether.

To help the business community to understand the key issues, we will be holding an open business debate on Friday 10 June 2016.“

Key findings in the survey:

EAST OF ENGLAND BUSINESS IMPACTS

• The majority of business leaders report that the referendum has had no impact to date on various aspects of their business, from orders and sales (78.10%), recruitment (90.4%), and investment (84.2%), to total costs (78.9%)
• If the UK were to leave the EU, 33.6% currently expect this would have a negative impact on their overall growth strategy (down very slightly from 34% in February’s survey), 38% feel this would have no impact (unchanged from previous survey), while 16.8% believe it would have a positive impact (a drop from 23.5% in the previous survey)
• Asked for the first time about the impact of remaining a member of the EU, 14.8% currently expect this to have a negative impact on their overall growth strategy. Almost half (48.7%) feel it would have no impact, while nearly a third (28.7%) believe it would have a positive impact.

EAST OF ENGLAND VOTING INTENTIONS

• 46.10% of East of England business leaders would vote to stay in the European Union, should the vote take place tomorrow. 40.90% would vote to leave.
• This is a narrowing from the previous survey in February, which showed a 55-34-11 split in favour of Remain.
• 93.90% of those surveyed are committed and unlikely to change their mind – just 6.10% could change their mind.