Chamber News

The British Chambers of Commerce has today (Monday) released its latest economic forecast, downgrading growth expectations for the UK in 2019 to 1.2% (from 1.3%) and to 0.8% (from 1.0%) for 2020. Our GDP growth forecast of 1.2% remains unchanged for 2021.

While the leading business group expects that the UK economy will avoid a technical recession and return to modest growth in the third quarter, downgrades to its GDP growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 reflect a weaker outlook for investment, trade and productivity amid a continued lack of clarity over the outcome of Brexit and deteriorating global economic conditions.

Business investment is now forecast to decline by 1.5% this year and by 0.1% in 2020, which together with the decline of 0.4% in 2018, would be the longest period of sustained full-year declines in business investment for 17 years. Relentless Brexit uncertainty and the diversion of resources by many businesses to guard against the chaos of a messy and disorderly Brexit, are expected to limit investment intentions over the forecast period.

UK productivity is projected to be more subdued than in our previous outlook and implies that by the end of 2020, the UK economy will have experienced its weakest decade of average annual productivity growth on record. Anaemic business investment, together with low unemployment, is expected to keep a lid on productivity, with firms expected to rely more on hoarding labour than investing in new technology given the heightened political and economic uncertainty. 

The UK’s net trade position is forecast to weaken over the period as companies face the combined headwinds of relentless uncertainty on the UK’s future relationship with Europe, weakening growth in key international markets and mounting global trade tensions.

The BCC’s economic forecast assumes a messy and disorderly Brexit is avoided. A no-deal exit would lead to major, sudden and unanticipated changes for the UK economy and would lead to revisions in our next forecast.

The persistently listless growth forecast reflects the impact of a slowing global economy and increasing trade tensions, but is also a stark reminder of the impact of the political turmoil and lingering unwanted prospect of no-deal exit – the economic consequences of which would be extensive. The BCC is therefore calling on government to do everything in its power to come to a negotiated solution with the EU and to take urgent steps to incentivise investment and boost business confidence.

Commenting on the forecast, Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“Our latest outlook indicates that the UK economy is set to stumble down an ever more sluggish growth path over the near term, unless decisive action is taken.

“The prolonged nature of the Brexit uncertainty, including the still real risk of a no-deal exit, together with a deterioration in global economic conditions are expected to weigh on investment, trade and productivity – important determinants of economic growth. The deteriorating outlook for productivity is a particular worry as it limits sustained wage growth, living standards and the UK’s longer-term growth potential. 

“The continued pressure on business activity and cashflow from historically high stockpiling, loss of business, and costly contingency planning is expected to limit the extent to which economic activity is able to rebound over the near term. Set against this, UK GDP growth will be supported in part by resilient household consumption and stronger government spending. Bold public spending commitments where the overriding objective is stronger growth and productivity can help support the UK economy at a time of significant change.

“The risks to the outlook for the UK economy remained skewed to the downside. A messy and disorderly departure from the EU would palpably increase the likelihood of the UK economy slipping into a marked downturn, particularly given the lack of actionable information that businesses need to help mitigate some of the impacts of a disorderly exit.”

Responding to the forecast, Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, added:

“Our latest forecast shows a number of warning lights are flashing for the UK economy, even if we are able to avoid a messy and disorderly exit from the EU in just a few weeks’ time.

“There’s no dancing round the fact that Brexit uncertainty has hit business investment hard. In addition to reaching a negotiated settlement with the EU, the government should be preparing big new incentives for business investment in the UK, and should reconfirm its unconditional backing for the big infrastructure projects our economy needs to unlock growth.

“Amidst a slowing global economy and continued political uncertainty, the UK government needs to use the autumn Budget to back infrastructure, help businesses train and re-skill more people, and cut the high up-front costs of doing business in the UK.”

Key points in the forecast:

• UK GDP growth forecast for 2019 is downgraded from 1.3% to 1.2% and from 1.0% to 0.8% in 2020 and remains unchanged at 1.2% in 2021
• Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth is forecast to pick-up to 0.3% in Q3 2019, up from the 0.2% contraction in Q2
• Forecast for business investment growth been downgraded to -1.5% for 2019 (from -1.3%) and to -0.1% for 2020 (from +0.4%), before growth of 0.8% in 2021 (downgraded from 1.1%)
• UK official interest rates are expected to remain at 0.75% throughout 2019 and 2020, before rising to 1.0% in 2021, a year later than in our previous forecast
• UK public sector net borrowing is forecast to be £48.2 billion higher over the next three years than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility at the 2019 Spring Statement, reflecting marked changes to government spending commitments and weaker expected tax revenue
• BCC expects export growth of 1.3%, 1.3% and 1.5%, compared to import growth of 4.2%, 1.6% and 2.0%, both are weaker compared to our previous forecast
• Labour productivity is expected to grow by just 0.4% in 2019, 0.6% in 2020 lower than our previous forecast of 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. Our forecast for 2021 remains unchanged at 0.8%
• Forecast for growth in household consumption been upgraded to 1.5% for 2019 (from 1.4%), followed by growth of 1.4% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021
• Average earnings growth is expected to outstrip inflation over the period, with growth of 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.9% respectively, compared with inflation of 2.1%, 2.2% and 2.1%.

As you may be aware, following a Structure and Prospects Appraisal process led by the Further Education Commissioner, it has been concluded that Easton College should merge with City College Norwich, and Otley with Suffolk New College.

The land-based sector is a crucial part of the Norfolk Economy and Easton and Otley College is very keen for Norfolk businesses to have their say on the proposed merger and the plans for the future of both the Easton and the Otley Campuses.

The Chair, Mark Pendlington has kindly offered a limited number of places for a small number of Norfolk Chambers member businesses to attend the free consultation lunch at the Norfolk Showground on 23 September:

Invitation

On behalf of our Board, I would like to extend an invitation, to join me for an informal lunch event at Royal Norfolk Showground on Monday 23rd September, between 12.30pm and 2pm. Jane Townsend, Principal at Easton and Otley College, and Corrienne Peasgood, Principal at City College Norwich will be attending.  This will be an ideal opportunity for us to update you on our plans, and for us to answer any questions you might have.  

If you would like to be included for the consultation lunch, please can you RSVP to Nova Fairbank by email: [email protected] by no later than close of play on Wednesday 18 September 2019.

Alternatively, you can have your say by taking part in the short online consultation.  The consultation document is located at: https://www.eocmerger.co.uk/ and the deadline for responses to be submitted is 01 October 2019.

Bristol Airport are undertaking research to identify our region’s requirement for travel to the South West.

The aim of the route is to provide connectivity between the two regions and offer businesses an alternative to the current costly and lengthy journey by rail and road.

If this is something that your business would be interested in exploring and feel you can support this route please can we ask you to take a few moments to complete the below link to identify your potential requirement.

Please click HERE to enter the survey, thank you in advance.

All survey results are anonymous.

Commenting on announcement on the two-year post-study work visa, Mike Spicer, Director of Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce said: 

“The British Chambers has long called for the two-year post-study work visa to be restored so this decision is welcome, if not overdue. This visa allows British universities and companies to benefit from the talent and energy of some of the students they have work so hard to train.  

“At a time of critical labour shortages, it’s right that the UK’s immigration system reflects economic reality and removes undue barriers to accessing skills. International students are crucial to the success of UK universities and the business communities in which they operate, and local companies will benefit from the opportunity to harness and develop their talent.” 

A Fantastic Breezy Breakfast!

Thursday 5th September saw our first Great Yarmouth breakfast after a summer of fans-on-full and office ice-creams.

The Imperial Hotel set on the breezy beach-front looked after us superbly, and our event ran with perfect timing thanks to Nick, Jill and their wonderful team.

Our Breakfast events are a fantastic opportunity to meet face to face and find out what is most important to our members, and how our membership team can support them.

We signpost, we support and above all, we listen. Listening to what members need is top of our daily to-do-list.  

The atmosphere was buzzing with conversations and coffee from beginning to end, and enormous thanks go to our Guest Speaker, Kate Pigeon-Owen of WellBeing International Ltd.

It’s a difficult topic for some, but Kate spoke with wit and knowledge on ‘Menopause in the workplace’ – a topic personally relevant to our own Haze Carver, and to many of our members too. If you are interested in how your company can learn more, do get in touch with Kate or come along to their Menopause Workshop day at Erpingham House on October 6th.

New research from the British Chambers of Commerce shows a concerningly high number of UK firms aren’t ready for a no deal Brexit.  Business has consistently called on government to avoid a messy and disorderly exit, but in light of the political turmoil and relentless uncertainty, clearer and more consistent information is needed to help them prepare.

The survey of over 1,500 firms from across the country, including those from Norfolk found that in the midst of conflicting political messages over the likelihood of no deal and remaining gaps in government guidance, over a third (37%) of East of England businesses have not done a Brexit risk assessment. Those that trade internationally (54%) are far more likely to have carried out a risk assessment on the impact of Brexit to their business than their counterparts that trade in the UK only (35%).

There has been a welcome jump in those that have carried out a Brexit assessment since last year (35% in 2018 and 60% in 2019), but with just weeks until a potential no deal exit, there is still a large proportion of firms that aren’t in a position to prepare for the impact.

Political turbulence and ongoing uncertainty about the final outcome of the Brexit process is hampering business planning, making it impossible for firms to know what to prepare for. While there has been an increase in the guidance available from government on conditions in a no-deal, the advice needs to be clearer and more consistent. In many critical areas, such as regulations, customs and trading in Northern Ireland, there is still no good information on which firms can plan.

In a no deal scenario, firms that trade with Europe will face new customs procedures at the border. However, awareness of other schemes* to maintain continuity of trade remains low. The results show that even among internationally active East of England businesses:

• 65% are not aware of Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP)
• 59% are not aware of Authorised Economic Operator status (AEO)
• 78% are not aware of Customs Comprehensive Guarantees (CCG)

Chambers campaigned successfully for the government to automatically issue EORI numbers, which are critical for trading across borders, to all VAT-registered businesses. Now, the Chamber network is calling on HM Government to either automatically enrol or support businesses to access these other important customs and border facilitations.

The business network also continues to encourage all companies – not just those trading across borders – to consider the potential impact of Brexit on their operations. UK-only businesses will face impacts linked to their own suppliers and customers, or to changes elsewhere in the economy, and should take steps to assess these.

Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said:

“Norfolk businesses do not want to see a messy and disorderly Brexit, but ongoing uncertainty means they must prepare for all possibilities as the October deadline looms.

“While more firms have taken basic steps to prepare for change than was the case last year, and government has stepped up communication to businesses, ongoing uncertainty makes business planning with confidence next to impossible. Companies are told to plan – but are being presented with a moving target.

“Businesses are facing significant changes on multiple fronts, and need official guidance that is consistent, precise and easily accessible, enabling them to trade in any scenario. Yet, there are many areas where there simply isn’t enough clear and actionable information for businesses to mitigate some of the impacts of an unwanted no-deal exit.

“Low levels of awareness around special customs and trade schemes are of particular concern, as this highlights the potential for disruption at borders in an unwanted no-deal situation. Companies should be automatically enrolled or supported to enrol in these schemes to increase trader readiness.

“Our evidence yet again reinforces the importance of averting a chaotic exit on October 31st.”

Help us give a warm welcome to the newest members of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce for the month of August

Visit their business to explore what they have to offer. Click on a business name below to view the full listing in our Member Directory.

Solace Coaching Solace Coaching was founded in 2015 by Paul Ward, a personal development coach with experience working with a variety of clients both in business and on a personal basis. 

David Fung As a lifelong student and performer of the art of magic, David brings a collection of polished routines and showmanship to his performances, whether in up-close magic or on the stage. 

Tuin Tuin supply a huge range for the garden including log cabins, gazebos, garden furniture, decking – Virtually anything you could need for your garden throughout the UK.

Vortex Visual We use the latest tech including interactive 3D & 360° Virtual Property Tours, Aerial Drone & Ground-based Video & HDR Photography to showcase your business

Downey & Co London’s foremost luxury printers and bespoke creative house for over 100 years. We are luxury brand specialists and have vast experience of creating bespoke invitations, sumptuous wedding suites, beautiful corporate stationery and exquisite packaging projects.

County Broadband County Broadband aims to offer rural communities access to superfast wireless broadband and fixed line ultrafast ‘True Fibre’ broadband.

Lauren Ephithite Wellbeing Advocate Lauren Ephithite is a Wellbeing Advocate based in Norfolk. I work with wellbeing businesses, organisations and charities helping them to reach more people, manage projects and produce content.

Brewin Dolphin We are one of the UK’s leading wealth managers. Founded in 1762, we are here to help you achieve your ambitions through expert, personalised financial planning and investment management advice.

Michelle Denny Recruitment Michelle Denny Recruitment offers a bespoke and professional recruitment service tailor-made to you as both employer and candidate, working in true partnership. 

EF Plastics We are a plastic recycling company and a reliable partner in recycling of plastic waste. In UK and Europe, we work closely with recycling companies, waste management companies, industrial and manufacturing firms in collecting, processing and exporting their plastic waste. 

XLWerks We are adept at working with urban environments and creating inspiring interior landscapes,

Loveday & Partners Norfolk’s premier firm for bespoke, independent financial advice.

Judeline Nicholas Associates Learning & Development Consultants

Norfolk Chambers of Commerce has launched a new service for it’s members, an virtual address at our office in Norwich. 

This is ideal for start-up businesses, soletraders and those working from home who want a registered business address different to their home address. 

This complimentary and included in your membership. You are able to use this as your registered business on your website, marketing collateral and Companies House. We will collect post for you and will notify when we receive post, you will need to collect this within a two week period from our Norwich office. 

To access this service you will need to register your interest by email [email protected] and you will need to sign a contract before you can start using the address. 

Notice is hereby given that the 123rd Annual General Meeting of the Norfolk Chamber of Commerce & Industry will be held at The Open, 20 Bank Plain, Norwich on Wednesday 02 October 2019. 

Registration will be at 9.45am, for meeting commencement at 10am.  Please see attached for all papers relevant to the meeting.

The AGM will be preceded by our annual Economic Breakfast – book your place now.

Things don’t always go to plan but it’s how you deal with those situations that speaks volumes about you and your business. Back in May we ran a breakfast at the Cosy Club which definitely didn’t run as smoothly as we all would have liked. On Friday 30th August we returned as they invited us and our May guests back to seek redemption.

Following the last breakfast we fed back the disappointment of our guests at the standard of service received, instead of chalking it up to experience and saying “thanks for the feedback” Cosy Club invited everyone back to set things right. The morning definitely gave our Customer Experience Team Member Jordan “the fear” but she decided that everyone deserves a second chance so accepted and began sending out the invites. She let her inner control freak loose, keeping in constant contact with them and probably drove them mad with all her checking and double-checking!

We had a small but perfectly formed group with us for a morning featuring two networking activities and a very informal swapping of tables. There was a real buzz of anticipation as guests entered and began networking in the beautiful main dining area. After being seated guests were asked to share a surprising fact about themselves with others on their table, we even had someone who has featured on a The Only Way Is Essex episode, quite the claim to fame! Towards the end of their networking time the Cosy Club team served breakfast, there were lots of very happy faces at this point!

After everyone had been fed a small vote was held on whether a networking activity or free networking time was preferred, the networking activity took it. Guests shared the best customer service they’ve ever experienced, Jordan kicked it off by congratulating Cosy Club on their fantastic turnaround there was even clapping!

The morning was closed by Cosy Club’s General Manager Tim who thanked everyone for coming along to give them a second chance. Guests left full of delicious breakfast having had a good morning of networking with a fantastic impression of the team. It really goes to show that, although getting it right the first time is of course the preferred option, how you deal with difficult situations when they arise is just as important. Previously we had vowed never to return to Cosy Club, after this morning we’ll be happy to bring our members back and cannot thank the team enough for their hospitality. They definitely turned their sorry to our thanks!

Talking Tech is Norfolk Chambers of Commerce annual flagship technology event. The half day conference will this year take place on Wednesday 18 September, 9am – 2pm at The Space, Norwich. The theme for 2019’s conference is all about myth busting. Our expert guest speakers will take the stage to dispel common myths within their industry in a mixture of keynotes, panel discussions, lightening talks and a workshop to close the event.  Our keynote speakers will be covering everything from taking your business paperless to agri-tech. One to watch will be Paul Maskall, Head of Cyber, Risk and Technology for Dardan Security as he delivers a keynote on our relationship with technology. Paul will be breaking down the emotional myths that provide a barrier against us utilising or finding balance with technology. Panel discussions this year will focus on cyber security and data and artificial intelligence. The panels provide the opportunity for the audience to get involved in the event by submitting their questions through Slido. To close the main conference there will also be a special collaborative panel discussion and lightening talks, from the tech groups of Norwich, including (nor(DEV):), Hot Source Norwich and Sync Norwich.   Following the main conference there will be a networking lunch at 1pm, giving attendees the opportunity to digest the morning and speak one-on-one with the speakers. At 1:30pm to close the event there will then be a workshop with Mark Williams-Cook, Director at Candour. Mark will be presenting ‘why your website content is rubbish and you don’t rank in Google’. The half an hour workshop will be a practical survival guide to how you should be thinking about your website content.  Throughout the event a specialist exhibition of technology themed businesses will also be showcased in the main entrance/networking space, with software developers, email marketing specialists and IT support.  We will also be using Thyngs cards at the event again this year. The Thyngs cards give attendees access to all of the event information through QR codes and NFC technology. This year, you can get your own personalised Thyngs card by booking your ticket by Friday 6th September.  The event is aimed at all businesses who are looking to improve the ways they use technology, or who want to introduce new and exciting technology to boost their business.  To book your tickets, view our speaker line-up or our exhibitors click below: FIND OUT MORE Talking Tech 2019 is sponsored by Barclays Eagle Labs, Breakwater IT and Naked Element.

Responding to the latest Westminster developments, Dr Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“Businesses feel like Westminster is playing an endless game of political chess, while their futures and the health of the UK economy hang in the balance.

“Every move in this game is prompting more questions, not just amongst businesses here at home but also amongst their partners around the world. Out in the real world, continuing political turbulence is taking a toll on contracts, on investment decisions, and on business confidence. Three years on, the damage continues.

“The top priority for businesses and the economy is still to avoid a messy and disorderly exit from the EU on the 31st of October. Despite the noise, none of the events of the last few days have given businesses greater confidence that this will be achieved. Given this, it is essential for government and its agencies to further boost support for businesses through any scenario.       

“Once again, businesses will have to try their best to prepare for an unclear future as the political process goes down to the wire.”