Commenting ahead of the EU Summit – the first since the Prime Minister formally announced his areas of negotiation, John Longworth, BCC Director General, said:
“Our survey work has shown that many business leaders are judging the EU referendum debate on the results the Prime Minister delivers.
“This EU Summit may prove a tipping point. Clarity on safeguards, sovereignty, a better single market and a balanced approach to migration are urgently required – so that businesspeople and the UK public can make up their minds.”
In the three months from August-October 2015, employment was up 207,000 and unemployment was 110,000 lower
The youth unemployment rate fell to its lowest level for more than 10 years
Annual growth in average earnings in the three months from August-October fell to 2.4% including bonuses and 2.0% excluding bonuses
Commenting on the labour market figures for December 2015, published today by the ONS, David Kern, BCC Chief Economist, said:
“This is an encouraging pre-Christmas set of figures, with employment rising to a record high, unemployment falling, and inactivity declining. The youth unemployment rate has also fallen to a 10-year low, although it is still considerably higher than the national average. Overall these figures demonstrate that our flexible and vibrant labour market remains a source of strength for the UK economy.
“While wages are continuing to rise faster than prices, boosting disposable incomes, the slowdown in annual earnings growth will provide more evidence to the MPC that there is no need to consider any early increase in interest rates.”
The majority of companies across Norfolk and Suffolk back proposals to devolve more powers from central government to cities and regions saying the move would boost confidence and give local businesses a stronger voice, according to new research from financial and business advisers Grant Thornton.
The survey results found nearly 60% of businesses questioned support the idea of devolution with almost half of respondents (42%) feeling devolution would be best achieved jointly by Norfolk and Suffolk rather than individually or with Cambridgeshire or Essex.
The survey asked a range of businesses from across the two counties for their views, including members of the areas Chambers of Commerce.
“Devolution remains a political priority and in both Norfolk and Suffolk, the survey findings suggest substantial business support for the idea. Grant Thornton has also carried out national research*on the topic of devolution which notes that generally, local government are also very positive about making further devolution happen.” said Toby Wilson of Grant Thornton’s Norwich office. “However, it will be up to local authorities and related partners to continue to show they are prepared to make tough decisions regarding scarce resources. They also need to show that these decisions are informed by economic necessity and the best long-term outcomes for the whole area, not temporary local political accommodation.”
When asked about the main reasons for supporting greater devolution, more than two thirds (67%) said it would give businesses more certainty over long term projects such as transport infrastructure, planning and skills provision. A further 64% said devolution would provide local companies with a greater say over key areas including business support and skills, while 36% said it would boost productivity and economic growth.
The findings follow George Osborne’s ‘devolution revolution’ announcement made last month which included plans to scrap the uniform business rate set in Whitehall and give local councils control to set the levy.
The survey results also found that nearly 60% thought greater devolution would motivate them to be more proactive in local decision making and 20% of local firms said it would give them more confidence to employ more staff.
“Devolution offers us an exciting opportunity to release even more of the entrepreneurship, innovation and ideas that drive our local economy.” said Mark Pendlington, chairman of New Anglia LEP. “Our businesses across Norfolk and Suffolk are at the heart of these ambitions, but we know they want more clarity and certainty over key areas such as long-term funding for infrastructure, skills and business funding and support. Our job as a LEP is to ensure those asks are taken and heard in Westminster as we continue our discussions on devolution locally and with Government.”
When asked if a unifying brand would benefit both counties, such as the “Northern Powerhouse” 42% said it would be beneficial, with 81% saying this would provide greater recognition for inward investment across the UK and globally and 55% saying the region has great assets that need exploiting. However, more than half (52%) said there would be no value in electing a regional Mayor to be responsible for the devolved powers.
“The Norfolk business community welcome the opportunities that the Norfolk and Suffolk Devolution proposal could bring to our region.” said Jonathan Cage, President of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce. “The benefits of having greater local decision making and the ability to influence further economic growth and productivity are clear. The Chamber will be working in close partnership with our local authorities to ensure that the Devolution proposal moves forward swiftly. We will ensure that the local business voice is heard and will help support the Combined Authority in their efforts to help deliver greater economic growth and jobs.”
“The Norfolk and Suffolk devolution proposals, such as infrastructure, economic development and skills are in important service delivery areas that are very relevant to our members and to the wider business community.” said Sarah Howard, President of Suffolk Chamber of Commerce. “We very much welcome the ambition to make associated investment decisions ‘closer to home’ and we will be working with our partners to ensure that the proposals are progressed quickly and that there is a strong voice for business aligned to the efforts of the Combined Authority.”
UKTI’s Franco-British Offshore Wind and Tidal event at the British Ambassador’s Residence in Paris has been confirmed for Tuesday 26 January 2016. The format will be similar to last year; although UKTI are planning to allow more time for the one-to-one meetings with your French prospects. (That’s why the actual programme is still to be confirmed). As before, UKTI’s Alan Highet will attend to support East of England delegates, by helping you to get as much benefit as possible out of your participation …
Register promptly to be profiled in a catalogue of UK participants, that will be sent to all the participating French companies so they can request meetings. UK companies that have registered in time to feature in the catalogue will receive the equivalent catalogue of French participants, so you can request meetings with them.
Indeed, if you know already that there are French companies you’d like to meet, let Alan Highet know now at [email protected]. If you don’t know Alan Highet already, he’s UKTI’s lead advisor for Environmental & Energy in the East of England. It’s likely the companies you’ll want to meet will attend anyway, as this is recognised in France as one of the major OWE events, but just in case they might not have done so already, Alan’s colleagues in Paris will call them to encourage their participation … . UKTI might not be able to guarantee it, but they’ll do their best to get you that meeting!
It really is an appropriate time to meet French companies associated with developing their emerging OWE market; the prestigious surroundings of HM Ambassador’s Residence near the Élysée Palace helps to attract important buyers and influencers; and UKTI is collaborating once again with the French renewables industry organisation Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables (SER) and others – so you’ll have access to France’s key industry players. What’s more, UKTI are hoping to arrange a “return” event later in 2016, exclusive to the East of England, inviting French companies who have met East of England companies in Paris to visit our region so they can witness your capabilities at first hand …
The closing date for registrations that’s on 28 December, for entry in the catalogue that will be sent to French companies so they can request meetings with you. As that’s in the middle of the Festive Season, and there won’t be time after the New Year to include companies who haven’t already registered, UKTI recommend registering as soon as possible to ensure your inclusion well before Christmas! The participation fee is £420 that allows representation by two delegates per company. Last time East of England companies averaged more than 6 meetings per company, and it’s quite common for French companies to agree to a follow-up meeting soon afterwards, while you might still be in Paris!
SMEs that meet the qualifying criteria can apply for £200 towards travel costs associated with attending this event (also subject to budget availability at the time of your application, so don’t delay!)
If you register on-line now, please email [email protected], to let him know, so that he can alert his colleagues in Paris and to highlight your participation. If you want to register but it’s not convenient to do so on-line right now, you can email [email protected], sending the message – “Yes, please book my place at the British Embassy in Paris, 26 January 2016” – and Alan will let his colleagues know. You’ll still need to register on-line before the deadline for inclusion in the catalogue, but at least UKTI will have noted your interest and send you reminders if necessary!
Your commitment to attend and settle the participation fee, via UKTI’s OMIS system (Overseas Market Introduction Service), will follow. On-line registration is being organised for UKTI by Proximum Group, then UKTI will assist you locally with the OMIS admin.
The OMIS fee for participation on 26 January is set again at UKTI’s minimum level (£420 + vat) for up to two delegates to attend. That reflects a significant subsidy against the actual costs of facilitating your series of business meetings. During the day you’ll also find out what’s up-to-date in the French sector, and there are several networking opportunities to meet others with whom you might not have pre-arranged meetings – particularly over coffee, lunch and between your meetings; and previously there has been an end-of-event reception.
Commenting on the latest delay to a government decision on a new runway in the South East, John Longworth, BCC Director General, said:
“Businesses will see this as a gutless move by a government that promised a clear decision on a new runway by the end of the year.
“Business will question whether ministers are delaying critical upgrades to our national infrastructure for legitimate reasons, or to satisfy short-term political interests.
“Businesses across Britain will be asking whether there is any point in setting up an Airports Commission – or the recently-announced National Infrastructure Commission – if political considerations are always going to trump big decisions in the national interest.
“The Commission has said that a new runway should be built at Heathrow, and quickly. Expansion at other airports is needed too.Ministers need to stop prevaricating and get on with doing what the country sorely needs.”
Over 80 members joined us armed with Christmas sweaters for a morning of festive fun at Sprowston Manor at our annual Norwich Christmas Breakfast.
We had a variety of Christmas themed networking activities, including a Two Truths, One Lie activity which involved delegates announcing the worst of their Christmas present history. Delegates also had the opportunity to draw and listen to their favourite Christmas songs in other ice breakers.
Featured charity Break were very grateful for the huge amount of donated gifts and food from delegates that they will include in their Christmas drop off to those in need of a little festive magic this year.
Motorists are warned of overnight restrictions and closures as the major works at the A47 Postwick junction near completion. These restrictions will mainly affect eastbound traffic.
For the next three nights, Wednesday 9 December to Friday 11 December (8pm to no later than 6am) there will be eastbound lane closures on the A47 and the full closure of the new slip road, with traffic diverted around the A47 Cucumber Lane roundabout and back to the Postwick junction via the westbound A47.
These restrictions are to allow surfacing, white lining and the installation of new signs to complete the tie-in of the new slip road with the main eastbound carriageway.
A47 eastbound overnight closure
Next week, the A47 eastbound will be closed overnight (8pm to no later than 6am) on Monday 14 December for completion of the new slip road and removal of traffic management from the main A47. (Tuesday 15th and/or Wednesday 16th may be used if completion that night is not possible).
The signed diversion route will be via the A146 from Trowse, the A143 and A12, re-joining the A47 at Vauxhall roundabout, Great Yarmouth. The closures are taking place overnight to avoid peak daytime traffic.
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has today (Wednesday) downgraded its UK GDP growth forecast, from 2.6% to 2.4% in 2015, from 2.7% to 2.5% in 2016, and from 2.7% to 2.5% in 2017.
Weaker than expected net trade and manufacturing figures were the main reasons for the leading business group’s downgrading of its growth forecasts. The BCC believes the UK economy is set to continue expanding at a moderate pace, mostly driven by strong growth in the service sector and in consumer spending.
Key points in the forecast:
UK GDP growth forecast downgraded, from 2.6% to 2.4% in 2015, from 2.7% to 2.5% in 2016, and from 2.7% to 2.5% in 2017
The downgrade is mainly due to weaker than expected trade figures and a worse than predicted manufacturing performance, largely as a result of falling global prospects in recent months
Lower than predicted actual GDP growth in Q3 2015 and downward ONS revisions of earlier estimates also contributed to the BCC’s downgrade
Quarterly UK GDP growth is expected to average just over 0.6% per quarter from Q4 2015 onwards, in line with the economy’s long-term growth trend
The service sector is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2015, 2.9% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017 (revised slightly from 2.8% in 2015, 2.9% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017 in the previous forecast)
The manufacturing sector is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2015, followed by growth of 0.7% in 2016, and 2.0% in 2017
The first interest rate increase to 0.75% is expected in Q3 2016
Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said
“Official data is starting to reflect what the Quarterly Economic Survey has been showing all year – that our persistently weak trade performance and current account balance are impacting our overall growth. Similarly, the manufacturing sector has been hit badly by falling global prospects, tipping an earlier prediction of growth in 2015 to an expected contraction.”
John Longworth, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“We cannot rely so heavily on consumer spending to fuel our economy, especially when driven by increased borrowing. We have been down this path before, and know that it leaves individuals and businesses exposed when interest rates do eventually rise.
“Not all debt is bad though. Better access to growth funding and working capital will help UK firms to achieve the scale needed to expand into export markets, which in turn creates jobs and growth at home. Investment in infrastructure is also crucial in enabling businesses to get their goods and services to market.
“The UK still needs to see a fundamental shift in its economic model if we are to remain relevant and prosperous in a changing world economy. Anyone who says that the job is nearly done needs to look again at the trade deficit, current account position and long-term business investment – and realise there’s still a long way to go.
“Government and business need to work together to provide UK firms with support similar to our international competitors if we are to begin to turn the tide of our trade deficit.”
David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC, said:
“Despite our downgraded forecasts, GDP is likely to continue expanding broadly in line with the UK economy’s long term growth trend. However, services and household consumption remain the main drivers of UK growth, and their contribution to GDP is set to rise even further in the next few years.
“International uncertainties, coupled with undue reliance on excessive personal debt and a falling savings ratio, pose serious potential risks for the UK economy, although rising earnings and disposable incomes, lower inflation and a strong labour market will help growth.
“These dangers facing the UK economy make it important to sustain areas of domestic strength in order to underpin UK growth. While we expect the first increase in UK interest rates in Q3 2016, we believe that rising international uncertainty provides strong arguments for the MPC to delay this.”
Other elements from within the forecast
Main components of demand
Annual average growth in household consumption is forecast to accelerate to 3.1% in 2015, before slowing to a still strong rate of 2.7% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017
UK business investment is predicted to grow by 6.2% in 2015, 7.4% in 2016, and 7.4% in 2017
Our forecast is that the real net trade deficit will fall from 2.8% of GDP in 2014 to 2.6% of GDP in 2017, a much smaller fall than we predicted in Q3
Growth in real exports is forecast to be 3.5% in 2015, 3.4% in 2016, and 3.0% in 2017
Main sectors of the economy
Service sector output is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2015, 2.9% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017. The share of services in total UK output is likely to rise further in the next few years
Manufacturing output is expected to record negative growth of -0.2% in 2015, followed by positive growth of 0.7% in 2016, and 2.0% in 2017
Total industrial output growth is forecast at 1.1% in 2015, 0.8% in 2016, and 1.3% in 2017
Construction output growth is forecast at 2.3% in 2015, 0.9% in 2016, and 2.0% in 2017
Official interest rates
The first increase in UK official interest rates to 0.75% is expected to occur in Q3 2016, one quarter later than we previously predicted
Further modest increases in official interest rates can then be expected, in small 0.25% steps, with official interest rates reaching 1.75% in Q4 2017
Unemployment and productivity
The UK unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 5.3% in Q3 2015, to 5.2% in Q2 2016, 5.1% in Q2 2017 and 5.0% in Q2 2018
Total UK unemployment is forecast to fall from 1,749,000 in Q3 2015 to 1,724,000 in Q3 2016, 1,709,000 in Q3 2017, and to 1,694,000 in Q3 2018, a net overall fall in the jobless total of 55,000 over the next three years
Total youth unemployment (people aged 16 to 24) is expected to fall from 726,000 (a jobless rate of 15.7%) in Q3 2015, to 692,000 (a jobless rate of 14.7%) in Q3 2018, a net fall of 34,000
Productivity has been weak since the financial crisis, but has risen over the past year, and we expect a further gradual improvement in the next few years
Public finances
The UK public finances have improved in the current financial year, although there was a setback in October 2015
The Chancellor’s new and more flexible medium-term fiscal consolidation timetable, outlined in the November 2015 Autumn Statement, is challenging but realistic
We are now predicting that UK public sector net borrowing will move into surplus in 2019/20, which is also in line with the OBR’s November 2015 forecast
Inflation and earnings
Annual CPI inflation will stay around zero for the next few months, before edging up slowly from Q1 2016 onwards, but will remain below the 2% target at least until mid-2017
In annual average terms, we are forecasting annual CPI inflation at 0.1% in 2015, 1.1% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017. In Q3 we predicted 0.1% in 2015, 1.2% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017
We are now predicting that total earnings growth (total pay including bonuses) will average 2.5% in 2015, 3.3% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2017
The new earnings forecasts are slightly lower for 2016 and 2017 than those made in Q3
Today marks the soft launch of the Government’s National Living Wage campaign.
The campaign is aimed at ensuring employers are aware of and comply with the new legal requirement. It is also designed to ensure eligible workers know that they are entitled to the NLW, and what to do if they are not being paid the correct amount.
This ‘soft launch’ phase, from now until mid-January, is focused on making sure that employers know about the NLW, know when it is coming, and what they should do to prepare their businesses for it.
So are Norfolk employers prepared – do they know when it is coming, and what they should do to prepare their businesses for it?
The Government has advised four simple steps for employers to take – as soon as possible – to make sure that they are ready.
Know the correct minimum rate of pay -£7.20per hour for staffaged 25 and over
Find out which members of your staff are eligible for this new rate
Update the company payroll in time forApril 1, 2016
Tell staff about any changes as soon as possible
The Government has provided a toolkit, which should give employers the information and assets they need to ensure that employers and employees know about the National Living Wage.
Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said:
“It is important that all businesses, both large and small, understand the new National Minimum Wage regulations and take the necessary steps to ensure they are compliant by 01 April 2016.
“The NLW will leave some businesses with a large increase in wage bills to adapt to over the coming months. The Chamber will continue to call on politicians to recognise that the UK economy is still fragile and to heed the Low Pay Commission’s considered recommendations for future wage rates, if they are to reassure businesses who may be looking at their recruitment plans for the year ahead.”
Preliminary work on site has started on Norwich Northern Distributor Road (NDR), Norfolk County Council announced today (Tuesday 8 December).
The start, on land already controlled by the Council, comes less than two weeks after Full Approval and the release of national funding was announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement (25 November). Since then, Norfolk County Council has moved quickly to instruct Balfour Beatty, the main contractor for the project, and to serve notice on landowners of its intention to take possession of land needed for the road.
The preliminary work, including clearance of vegetation, archaeology, utility service diversions and some drainage lagoon excavations, will be stepped up in January along the whole footprint of the scheme. This will prepare the route before construction of the new road startsaround the end of March, with completion of the main works early in 2018.
Today’s start on site announcement took place near Rackheath, where ground works are being carried out for a bat roost barn – one of the manywildlife and environmental protection measures built into the project. The Leaders of Norfolk County Council, Cllr GeorgeNobbs, and Broadland District Council, Cllr Andrew Proctor, were joined by Chris Starkie, Managing Director of New Anglia LEP, and Stephen Tarr, Managing Director, Major Projects, Balfour Beatty, to mark the transition from the lengthy planning, project developmentand approval process to actual work on site.
Once complete, the 20km dual carriageway, runningfrom the A47 at Postwick to the A1067 Fakenham road, will take thousands of vehicles a day off congested and unsuitable roads in and around Norwich. As well as easier journeys and relief for local communities, the NDR will:
Pave the way for a range of further ‘Transport for Norwich’ improvements in and around Norwich.
Improve accessibility and journey times inBroadland and to and fromNorth Norfolk.
Provide a high quality linkto Norwich International Airport from the A47 trunk road.
Improve access to existing and planned business and housing areas.
Give a£1billion boost to the local economy.
This preliminary work, including clearance of vegetation, archaeology, utility diversion and some drainage lagoon excavations, will be stepped up in January along the whole footprint of the scheme. This will prepare the route for construction of the new road, which will start around the end of March 2016 and is expected to take less thantwo years to complete.
A brief history of Norwich Northern Distributor Road
It has taken many years for proposals for a Norwich Northern Distributor Road (NDR) to reach the point where work has started on site.The idea was floated in the 1990s after the opening of the A47 Southern Bypass, but the lack of funding opportunities led to it being shelved. The current scheme emerged from a 2002/3 update of the Norwich Area Transport Strategy (NATS).
Initial stages:
2003
NDR gains 78% support as key element of NATS.
2004/2005
Route option consultation
2005
September- Council drops western section on environmental grounds and adopts current route.
Timetable envisages construction starting 2010, road open 2012.
Scheme development and setbacks
2008
Major Scheme Business Case approved by Cabinet.
2009
E of E Regional Assembly supports NDR, Department for Transport (DfT) grants ‘programme entry’NDRand allocates £21m from Community Infrastructure Fund (CIF) for Postwick Hub. Start of works put back from 2010 to 2012.
2010
February – DfT allocates £67.5m for NDR to A140 (in addition to PostwickCIF allocation). County Council agrees to underwrite cost of continuing to A1067.
General Election – New Coalition Govt withdraws NDR and Postwick allocations. NDR goes into ‘Development Pool’ process with DfT to re-establish funding.
2011
December – DfT announces combined allocation of £86.5m for NDR to A140 (£67.5m) and Postwick (£19m).
2013
Total estimated cost of NDR (including Postwick) put at £148.55m. Postwick Hub public inquiry held and completed in July.
Final approvals phase:
2014
Final approvals (road orders) granted for Postwick in January.
Work starts in May.
NDR enters NSIP development consent procedure. Examination begins 2 June 2014, ends 2 December.
2015
2 June: Development Consent granted by Secretary of State for Transport.
Costs rise to £178.95m. DfT, New Anglia LEP and Norfolk County Council agree to cover increase.
25 November: Full Approval and release of national funding announced in Autumn Statement.
8 December: Norfolk County Council announces start on site of preliminary works.
Main Postwick Hub junction works due for completion before the Christmas holidays.
The EU and Vietnam have approved a new free trade agreement worth £20 million a year for UK businesses exporting to Vietnam.
The EU and Vietnam have today (2 December 2015) approved a new free trade agreement that will ease trade of products and services between the UK and Europe with the Vietnamese market. In practice the deal means 99% of tariffs will be eliminated – worth £20 million a year for UK businesses exporting to Vietnam.
Commenting on the deal, the Business Secretary Sajid Javid said:
“Today’s free trade agreement with Vietnam, the most ambitious and comprehensive the EU has ever concluded with a developing country, is great news for British businesses enabling access to a fast-growing market of 90 million people in one of the most dynamic regions in the world – boosting export opportunities for our world-class food and drink, pharmaceutical and aeronautical sectors to benefit our long-term economic security.”
International Development Secretary Justine Greening said:
“Vietnam is a development success and UK aid has helped it make great progress on creating jobs, boosting incomes, growing its economy and reducing poverty.
“This free trade agreement reflects our changing relationship with Vietnam. It shows how our investment in overseas development can help build prosperity and stability, our trading partners today and in the future, and serve Britain’s interest.”
According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) Risk Index for the third quarter (Q3) of 2015, global supply chain risk remains stubbornly high.
Factors taken into account include the cross-border presence of the terrorist organisation ISIS throughout the Middle East, the subsequent re-introduction of border controls within Europe’s Schengen zone, a more assertive Russia and the easing of sanctions by the United States with regard to Iran and Cuba.
For CIPS, Dun & Bradstreet analysed 132 countries against a number of criteria, including level of exports, to assess issues and challenges along the supply chain to produce a global risk score.
This showed the global supply chain risk standing at 79.1, only slightly down from the record high of 82.4 two years ago and nearly double the pre-financial crisis level of 40.4 in Q4 of 2003.
One particular problem highlighted in the latest report is the threat to the Schengen area.
Nearly all the EU’s Member States (and a number who are not members such as Norway and Switzerland) signed up some years ago to the Schengen Agreement by which they eliminated internal border controls.
While this has produced considerable benefits for the free movement of goods over the last 20 years, the system is now coming under real strain with various Member States demanding a return to controls in order to restrict the numbers of migrants and asylum seekers trying to cross from one Schengen country (say Hungary or Greece) in order to reach their eventual goal (say Germany).
Although border crossings are taking as long as 90 minutes in the countries involved, traders who were in business before Schengen will remember that lorries could sometimes be delayed at customs crossings for several hours or even days.