The latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) is 101.8 which remains above the index’s baseline value of 100 but is below the previous value of 102.3.
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which produces the index, this suggests continued solid trade growth in the second quarter (Q2) of 2018 but probably at a somewhat slower pace than in the first quarter.
“The recent dip in the WTOI reflects declines in component indices for export orders in particular but also for air freight, which may be linked to rising economic uncertainty due to increased trade tensions,” the WTO suggests.
The latest results are broadly in line with the WTO’s most recent trade forecast issued on 12 April 2018, which predicted a moderation of merchandise trade volume growth from 4.7% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2018.
While the air freight index remains above trend (102.5), it has lost momentum in recent months. Container port throughput remains above trend (105.8) but shows signs of plateauing, while automobile sales (97.9) and agricultural raw materials (95.9) are currently weighing down the WTOI.
The WTO cautions that the index is designed to provide “real time” information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends, and is not intended as a short-term forecast, although it does provide an indication of trade growth in the near future.
The full World Trade Outlook Indicator is available here.
