With the second quarter of 2018 behind us, and amid growing international uncertainty, from escalating trade disputes to oil price rises, the UK economy continued to grow at a sluggish rate. Brexit was a key factor – but long-standing structural issues also continued to hold companies’ growth back.
The dominant service sector, consumer-facing industries, such as hospitality and retail, reported tougher trading conditions. Cashflow and investment intentions fell significantly for retailers as consumer spending continued to remain subdued. Meanwhile the UK manufacturing sector reported improved domestic sales orders and Norfolk manufacturers reported increases in their export sales and orders.
Is the uncertainty of Br3exit impacting on your business; have you seen an increase in sales and orders; are you having recruit difficulties or facing supply chain challenges, it’s more important than ever that as many Norfolk businesses as possible complete the survey.
Now we are in the third quarter – how are Norfolk businesses reacting to the current economic climate? Today (Tuesday 28 August 2018) is the first day of the fieldwork period for the Q3 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES).
The QES is the largest independent business survey in the UK and is used by both the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer to plan the future of the UK economy. It is also closely watched by the International Monetary Fund.
You can have your say by completing the QES online NOW It takes less than 3 minutes. The completion deadline for this survey is midnight on Monday 17 September 2018. The Q3 results will be published week commencing 08 October 2018
Key Norfolk findings in the Q2 2018 survey:
Norfolk Manufacturing sector:
- The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales rose from +16 to +35, while the balance reporting improved domestic orders also rose, from +23 to +35
- The balance of firms reporting increased export sales rose from +31 to +44. The balance reporting improved export orders also rose, from +26 to +31
- The balance of firms increasing investment in training fell, from +33 to +5, while the balance of those increasing investment in plant and machinery also fell from +33 to +30
- The percentage of firms looking to recruit remained steady at +30 while the number of those struggling to recruit rose significantly from +67 t0 +82
- Cashflow continues to be a concern within manufacturing, with just +10% reporting improved cashflow.
- The balance of firms expecting turnover to increase remained static +45 (from +46)
- 67% of firms in the sector expect the cost of their raw materials to rise in the next three months
- Confidence that profitability will improve over the next twelve months dipped from +35 to +30
Norfolk Services sector:
- The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales rose from +19 to +34, while the balance reporting improved domestic orders rose considerably from +13 to +28
- The balance of firms reporting increased export sales also rose, from +8 to +35. The balance reporting improved export orders also rose substantially, to +22 from +6
- The balance of firms increasing investment in training rose to +22 from +13
- The percentage of firms looking to recruit rose from14% to 37%, but the number of those struggling to recruit also rose to 82% (from 63%)
- Cashflow is a concern, with just 12% reporting improved cashflow.
- The balance of firms expecting turnover to increase in the next year increased, from +24 to +59
- Confidence that profitability will improve over the next twelve months increased from +15 to +36
