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Chambers Quarterly Economic Survey Q2 2019: Business hits the brakes

The British Chambers of Commerce’s quarterly economic survey – the largest private sector survey of business sentiment and leading indicator of UK GDP growth – found that key indicators of UK economic health weakened considerably in the second quarter of 2019. 

  • The balance of UK services firms reporting a rise in export sales at its lowest level in a decade
  • The balance of UK firms reporting improved cashflow turned negative for the first time since 2012 – in Norfolk since 2017
  • Investment intentions in both Norfolk’s manufacturing and services sectors at lowest level since 2016

Against a backdrop of a slowing global economy, escalating Brexit uncertainty, and rises in business costs as the UK enters a new tax year, the latest results from the survey of over 7,000 businesses, including those in Norfolk – all collectively employing around one million people – reflect a deterioration in many gauges of the UK’s economic strength. 

In the services sector, the percentage balance of UK firms reporting an increase in export sales stood at zero, its weakest level since 2009 and the orders balance turned negative (more firms reporting that orders have decreased than those reporting an increase) for the first time in eight years. In Norfolk, the service sector balances remained weak, but with a small increase to take them out of negative territory (Export sales rose from -5 to +4 and orders from -9 to +7.   The balance of firms reporting improved domestic sales and orders also weakened significantly in the quarter.  However taking East of England as a whole, the service sector balances for both home and export sales and orders fell drastically – all into negative balances – much greater than the national balances.

Among Norfolk manufacturers, the results remained mixed.  The percentage of firms reporting an increase in domestic sales and orders rose but the results remained weaker than the previous two years of results.  Export sales fell, but orders, rose slightly but overall remained weak.  The East of England manufacturers saw both home and export orders and sales all fall considerably – to much lower levels than the national totals.

The balance of Norfolk firms reporting improved cashflow – a key indicator of business health – and which has been declining over recent years, has now gone into negative territory with the exception of Norfolk’s manufacturers, who reported a slight increase from +21 to +26. 

The lack of clarity over the UK’s future relationship with the EU is continuing to weigh on investment intentions in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The balance of Norfolk firms who looked to invest in either plant and machinery or training dropped in both sectors to their lowest level since 2016. Business confidence in profitability and turnover also deteriorated sharply in the quarter.

Norfolk Chambers has been calling for an end to the relentless uncertainty, which as the latest results from the long-standing business survey highlight, has damaged the confidence and investment plans of business communities. Westminster must ensure that a messy and disorderly exit is avoided and provide firms with certainty on future conditions to prevent further declines. To kickstart strong growth in the economy, government must return its attention and energy to removing barriers to growth in the domestic environment.

Ill-timed increases in business costs – including compliance with Making Tax Digital, higher business rates for some firms, increased employer pension contribution requirements, and more – are also raising costs pressures for companies across the UK at a time when government should be looking to reduce rather than increase burdens.

Commenting on the Norfolk results, Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy at Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said:

“The findings should serve as a clear warning that the ongoing impasse at Westminster is contributing to a sharp slowdown in the real economy across Norfolk. Business is hitting the brakes – hard.

“These are some of the weakest figures we’ve seen in nearly a decade, and that’s no coincidence. The prospect of a messy and disorderly exit from the EU is weighing heavily on our local economy, and must still be avoided. The unwanted prospect of a disorderly ‘no deal’ exit, and the serious damage and dislocation it would bring, is still just days away unless Parliament acts to avoid it.

“At the same time that firms are having to enact costly contingency plans, the cost of doing business here in the UK continues to rise. This week sees a new tax year with a number of changes adding to the upfront cost of doing business in the UK, including the introduction of Making Tax Digital and changes to auto-enrolment, leaving many firms facing more bureaucracy and new expenses. It beggars belief that ministers are piling on more and more costly obligations at a time that businesses are already having to cope with Brexit and uncertainty.

“For too long Brexit tunnel-vision has distracted government from fixing the fundamentals to support growth here in the UK. We need to see an increased focus on creating the conditions for business success here at home – including concerted efforts to plug growing labour shortages, delivering an immigration policy that works for business and speeding up physical and digital infrastructure projects.”

Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

“Our latest survey suggests that UK growth nearly ground to a halt in the second quarter of 2019, with increasing anxiety over Brexit and weakening global economic conditions driving a significant deterioration in almost all the key indicators in the quarter.

“The services sector suffered the more substantial loss of momentum in the first quarter with both domestic and international activity slowing sharply in the quarter. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle amid tougher global and domestic trading conditions and rising cost pressures. The marked decline in the export indicators in both sectors suggests that net trade is likely to have been a drag on UK GDP growth in Q1. The deterioration in cash flow is concerning as it can leave firms more vulnerable to external shocks, including disruptions to supply chains.

“The forward-looking indicators are disappointingly downbeat with weakening orders, confidence and investment intentions pointing to precious little growth over the coming quarters, unless substantial action is taken.”

Key findings in the Q2 2019 survey:

Norfolk Manufacturing sector:

  • The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales rose from 0 to +26, while those reporting improved domestic orders also rose from +0 to +41
  • The balance of firms reporting improved export sales fell from +43 to +31, and the balance of firms reporting improved export orders rose very slightly from +43 to +46
  • The balance of firms reporting improved cashflow remained weak, but rose from +21 to +26
  • The percentage of firms attempting to recruit fell from 74% to 57%, the weakest since Q4 2012. Of those, 92% reported recruitment difficulties, close to its record high
  • The balance of firms increasing investment in plant/machinery rose in the quarter from +16 to +18, while investment in training fell from +42 and +23
  • The balance of firms confident that turnover and profitability will increase in the next 12 months was mixed – falling from +32 to +30 for turnover and rising from +11 to +23 for profitability

Norfolk Services sector:

  • The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales fell from +21 to +9, the weakest since Q3 2016. Those reporting improved domestic orders fell from +15 to -2
  • The balance of firms reporting improved export sales, whilst still weak, reported an increase from -5 to +4 and export orders rose from -9 to +7
  • The balance of firms reporting improved cashflow dropped in negative territory – falling from +8 to -10
  • The percentage of firms looking to recruit fell to 53%. Of those, 79% had recruitment difficulties – a little higher than the previous quarter
  • The balance of firms looking to increase investment in plant and machinery fell from +9 to +6 (weakest since Q4 2016), and from +20 to +16 in training
  • The balance of firms confident that turnover will improve over the next year remained static, whilst those who thought profitability would improve dropped from +24 to +14

New Members, Welcome – June

Help us give a warm welcome to the newest members of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce for the month of June

Visit their business to explore what they have to offer. Click on a business name below to view the full listing in our Member Directory.

All about the Message All About The Message’s ethos is simple – innovative, creative and friendly marketing which successfully connects companies to their audiences.

Business first solutions Business communications and security specialist. With over 20 years’ experience in the telecommunications industry we pride ourselves in providing best value and an excellent service

Construction Products Direct Construction Products Direct is a fast growing UK supplier and first choice of non-mechanical construction equipment including: access equipment, safety products, small tools, temporary fencing, barriers, excavation & Groundworks safety equipment and scaffolding products. 

Content Connective I’m Shaun Lowthorpe and I use my journalistic storytelling and know-how to shape your content marketing and communications and get your customer stories out there.

Creative Arts East Creative Arts East is an arts and community development charity committed to bringing the very best arts and cultural activities to rural and/or under-engaged audiences across Norfolk, Suffolk and the wider eastern region. 

Creative Exhibitions Ltd Creative Exhibitions Ltd work alongside businesses from a wide variety of sectors, we deliver professional, high impact exhibition stands that will make your business stand out, at even the most crowded of events.

EnerMech Globally our experts deliver a broad suite of services to the energy and infrastructure industries. We have a dedicated team of experienced and highly skilled specialists located throughout the world who strive to deliver the best quality services.

Go Cruise & TravelOffering a completely independent service and calling upon more than fifteen years experience in the industry, we are perfectly placed to tailor cruise packages to meet your requirements. 

Hughes Hughes are an independent electrical retailer, who started out in 1921 in Lowestoft.  Over the past nearly 100 years, we have spread to cover most of the UK through either retail stores, Trade (B2B) sites, rental offices, Commercial appliance hubs and smart home services.  We are still firmly local, with Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and Cambridgeshire still out heart land. 

Kingfisher Norfolk Ltd We have over 25 years experience delivering business development support to businesses. Our services are tailored to meet your specific requirements, ensuring we add value to your current sales strategy.

Norfolk Merchant Solutions

Orange Heating Supplies We are an independent heating products merchant with a difference. With over 30 years’ experience in the plumbing and heating industry, we are knowledgeable about the products we sell. 

PONO Norwich We are a superfood bar inspired by Hawaiian culture, selling healthy, nutritious food without feeling like you’re making sacrifices. We use fresh ingredients in everything we serve, including our customisable salads, poké bowls, smoothie bowls and drinks.

TEC Partners Group TEC Partners is a specialist Technology Recruitment and Executive Search consultancy, and in late 2016 we further extended our reach and networks with the acquisition of a highly successful Digital & Technology consultancy, ABRS Ltd, who themselves have been recruiting in these markets for over 17 years.

The Light Aircraft Company (TLAC) Since the start of The Light Aircraft Company Ltd we have been committed to the design, development, manufacture and maintenance of light aircraft ensuring safety, quality, and innovation.

Willow Property Management The importance of gleaming offices cannot be overstated. The appearance of your premises says a lot about your business. Our customers rely on our experience to deliver a wide range of cleaning services.

Remove blockers in the skills system to alleviate recruitment struggles, says Chambers and Indeed

New research by the British Chambers of Commerce, in partnership with global job site Indeed, reveals the increasing time it’s taking businesses to recruit the skills they need, emphasising the importance of removing blockers in the training system to develop a pipeline of talent.

Today the BCC and Indeed also release The Hiring Handbook to help businesses find and recruit the best people. 

Half of UK businesses say it takes longer to recruit people compared with five years ago, with 21% reporting it now takes up to six months to fill a skilled role, according to a survey of over 1,100 businesses from across the country. 

The increase in recruitment difficulties reinforces the need for a simple, coherent and stable skills system that gives business the confidence to engage and invest in long-term workforce development. 

The new T levels, due to be introduced in 2020, promise to offer young people a new route into employment, providing a quality, technical alternative to A levels that employers have long called for. However, the results reveal a clear communication void with business ahead of their rollout, as three-quarters of firms say they’ve never heard of T levels or know only the name. Only 3% know a lot of details.

T levels will include a 45-day industry placement with an employer, so extensive engagement with business will be crucial to ensure that young people and employers in every region of the country get the skills they need. Yet, 41% of respondents say their business currently has no plans to offer a placement, suggesting that much more needs to be done to inform, incentivise and support firms, particularly SMEs. 

Similarly, the Apprenticeship reforms, introduced in 2017 with the intention of increasing the quality and quantity of training, are not yet meeting the needs of businesses. Firms reported barriers including the suitability or availability of apprenticeship standards, a lack of candidates applying for vacancies and difficulty managing off-the-job training requirements. Employers say relaxing funding restrictions, reducing complexity and improving flexibility in the system would help tackle crippling skills gaps.

Claire Walker, Co-executive director at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

“For too long the UK’s approach to training has been characterised by constant chopping and changing of policy. The new Apprenticeship Standards, and T levels, provide the opportunity to ramp up quality and choice in technical and vocational qualifications, but more needs to be done to remove the blockers in the skills system – and communicate the benefits of these reforms – to get it working better for our businesses. Once barriers have been resolved, we need period of stability to allow the changes to imbed.” 

Pawel Adrjan, UK economist at global job site Indeed, said:

“Today, more working age people are in employment than ever before and there continues to be strong demand from employers for staff. While these economic conditions have clear benefits, they also make hiring more difficult. Combined with uncertainty about future immigration policy, that means employers should consider training a workforce for the future. Yet what this survey shows is that employers are either unaware or apathetic about schemes like T Levels and the related placements.

“Raising awareness of these schemes and ensuring that they work for businesses is important at a time when many of the people who do not already have a job and are available for work may lack the skills or experience that employers need. Training and upskilling the workforce is one way employers can access the skills they need to be competitive.”

Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said:

“Norfolk employers are very keen to support young people into the world of work.  However the constant policy changes, make it very difficult for some employers to easily understand their role in implementing the changes.  To make T levels truly successful, it’s important to get buy-in from industry from the start. There is clearly work to do in communicating the benefits and opportunities to companies. At the same time, more businesses need to recognise their responsibility to invest in young people and the wider workforce. Developing the skills we need now and for the future relies on close cooperation between business, education and government – and for each to play their part.”

UK Businesses say:

“The Apprenticeship Levy is effectively a tax. We are unable to access enough suitably accredited courses to use what we pay each year in levy. It has had zero impact on our approach to the number of apprentices we recruit and certainly does not encourage us to recruit more.”

Large manufacturing business, Manchester

“There’s a skills shortage developing, in that fewer young people with the appropriate skills are applying for vacancies in our sector.”

Engineering SME, Lincolnshire

“Can’t use Apprenticeship Levy for my existing training as the framework is too inflexible.”

A large transportation and storage business, Thames Valley

“The levy is a significant factor in the reduction of young people coming into the insurance industry. The Chartered Insurance Institute is the training and development career path for those working in insurance and was fully funded by most firms. It is ironic that the levy had meant less young people being able to come into our biggest industry and export at a time when we need to ensure succession planning…The levy has literally stolen our training investment into Chartered scheme.”

Large insurance business, London

Bank of England hears from Norfolk businesses

Today, Norfolk Chambers held a working lunch with the Bank of England at the Chambers offices in Norwich.  Patrick Campbell, East of England Agent for the Bank of England heard from a range of Norfolk businesses about their thoughts on the state of the Norfolk economy and the challenges being faced due to the continued uncertainty of Brexit.

Key amongst the Brexit challenges were those operating ‘just in time’ supply chains and the impact of delays in importing/exporting goods to meet it; the potential of future tariffs on raw materials; and European partners being unwilling to negotiate long term contracts.

Also up for discussion was the impact of economic uncertainty on the labour market and how the Living Wage increases and auto enrolment of pensions have affected salary levels in our region.  Other challenges noted were access to a skilled workforce.

First ‘Norwich in 90’ train marks start of faster journey times

The fastest ever train service between Norwich and London started on Monday 20 May 2019 – cutting down the scheduled journey time to just 90 minutes.

The launch of faster trains between East Anglia and London was heralded as “the start of the transformation of rail services in the region”.

Greater Anglia is now running four extra services between Norwich, Ipswich and London Liverpool street.

Fastest journey times between Norwich and London are now 90 minutes and just 55-57 minutes between Ipswich and London on these extra four services a day.

Jamie Burles, Managing Director of Greater Anglia said: “The launch of our new faster services between Norwich, Ipswich and London, is another big step in the transformation of our railway in East Anglia.

“For the launch we travelled on our existing trains, but this service will run on our brand new Intercity trains as we replace all of our existing trains with brand new state-of-the-art modern trains.

“As customers speed through East Anglia into London they’ll be able to enjoy longer trains, with more seats, USB and plug points, wifi, better passenger information and improved accessibility.”

Businesses and politicians in East Anglia have been calling for faster journey times between Norfolk, Suffolk and London for ten years.

The service was championed through the East Anglian Rail Prospectus and Great Eastern Main Line Taskforce, which was represented on the first journey by Chris Starkie, chief executive of the New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership and also key member of the Great Eastern Mainline Taskforce.

The 90-minute services will depart Norwich at 09.00 and 17.00, calling at Ipswich at 09.33 and 17.33, and London Liverpool Street at 11.00 and 19.00, calling at Ipswich at 11.55 and 19.57, and will operate on Mondays to Saturdays.

They will shave 12 minutes off the current fastest journey between Norwich and London and cut the fastest journey between Ipswich and London by 4 minutes.

These are introductory times, which could change in subsequent re-issues of the Greater Anglia timetable, which should see many other journey times cut when all new trains are in place.

Chris Sargisson, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said: “Norfolk Chambers has been campaigning for an improved rail service for many years and we are delighted that Norwich in 90 is now becoming a reality.  The new Greater Anglia timetable with the first two services for Norwich in 90 are the first steps towards delivering a transformation of rail services for commuters and business travellers alike, which will be worth billions of pounds of investment to Norfolk and East Anglia.”

Priti Patel, MP for Witham, said: “Having established the Great Eastern Main Line Taskforce in 2013 and worked closely with rail user groups, local businesses, and MPs, I am delighted to see these new services getting underway today.

“The new ‘Norwich in 90’ and ‘Ipswich in 60’ services are another major achievement for the Taskforce and featured in our original rail investment prospectus to the Government for the Greater Anglia franchise.

“These new services build on GEML’s other recent successes including the launch of Delay Repay 15, passenger refunds for late running services over 15 minutes, and the securing of more than £1bn funding for new Greater Anglia trains due to come into service within a matter of weeks.”

Meliha Duymaz, Network Rail Anglia’s route managing director, said: “Delivering these faster services for passengers into the new timetable has been a real joint effort, and along with Greater Anglia, we know that Norwich in 90 will provide better journeys for the people who live and work in the region as well as supporting the local economy.

“Recent performance on the route has been some of the best in years, and together we’re working on various initiatives to make journeys better for everyone.”

An Energised Morning!

A fantastic way to start to your day is at our Great Yarmouth Networking breakfast, especially when it with a view of our beautiful Norfolk Broads!

With many local businesses attending on the 20th June,  it was a full room with plenty of coffee and chat! Our Guest speaker was Ian Hacon, Founder of Energise Me, and he gave us his tips for getting 20% more energy! We all took note and drank down our waters (maybe even planning to ditch our kitchen snack drawers). There were 8 top tips that Ian talked about ranging form getting more sleep, to getting out of the office to go for a walk!  It was great to be joined by our event charity, Kickstart and the team Matthew and Diana. We were looked after by the team at The Boathouse and it was great to see so many new faces and catch up with our members in a great location.

Apprenticeships and T Levels – busting the myths!

Our Apprenticeships and T Levels HR Forum, in partnership with City College Norwich, was an intimate affair held in their Start Up Lounge. Delegates were treated to an afternoon of learning about Apprenticeships and the incoming T Level qualification by the college’s expert team.

Ruth Royle, Apprenticeship Delivery Manager, was up first discussing how to get the most out of Apprenticeships, she began with an outline of how they’re delivered and what subjects are covered, before moving on to how course funding works for organisations of different sizes and different ages. Ruth highlighted the importance of using the standards outlined in the course specification when recruiting an apprentice, the support you can expect to receive from City College, and pointed delegates in the direction of a number of platforms for advertising apprentice vacancies. She also outlined some of the expectations City College has of employers and the ways they can help support with these, which included having a mentor available for progress review meetings and a detailed action plan outlining work to be completed between visits.

Before delegates were given a brain break, Laura McLean, Director of Strategic Development and Implementation, gave an overview of the incoming T Level qualification. This included information on what they actually are – equivalent to 3 A Levels, developed in collaboration with employers and businesses, and a mix of classroom learning and “on the job” experience in the form of an industry placement of 315 hours. She explained they are part of the reaction to the need for a simplified system of post-16 education that includes more emphasis on technical education. Laura wrapped up the first session by explaining the grading system used for T Levels and the expected timetable for a variety of courses to be released.

After a short break we had the pleasure of Jenny Bach, Industry Placement Lead, presenting to on industry placements. She explained the requirements the college has of employers prior to a student starting with them (including health and safety checks and the provision of a manager or mentor to support the students) to ensure a supportive environment for both the student and the employer. There is no prescribed model for industry placements and Jenny explained this means that the college can be flexible about how they’re structured, although it usually works out to be one day a week with the occasional block week. She showed the group videos of both students and employers talking about how useful they had found them and the positive impact they had on both parties.

The afternoon finished with a short Q&A session and some free networking time which happened, unsurprisingly, around the cookies and hot drinks! Overall it was a really informative afternoon which saw delegates take away some useful information and food for thought around Apprenticeships and T Levels.

If you’re interested in attending our next HR Forum in September, you can find more information here, more details will be released soon!  

Chambers Forecast: Brexit stockpiling to hit economic growth in coming years

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has today (Monday) released its latest economic forecast, upgrading its growth expectations for the UK in 2019 to 1.3% (from 1.2%). However, the leading business group has downgraded its growth forecast for 2020 to 1.0% (from 1.3%) and to 1.2% (from 1.4%) in 2021.

The leading business group has slightly upgraded its growth forecast for 2019, driven by the exceptionally rapid stock-building early in the year. However, the immediate boost to UK GDP is forecast to come at the cost of more subdued growth in 2020 and 2021 as the unwinding of historically-high inventory levels, coupled with weaker business investment, weigh on economic activity.

Business investment is forecast to contract at a faster rate in 2019 and recover more slowly in 2020 than expected in our previous forecast. The continued Brexit impasse, including the growing possibility of a no-deal exit, together with the high upfront cost of doing business in the UK and the running down of excess stock, is expected to suffocate investment activity over the near term.

Trade is projected to make a negative contribution over the forecast period as exchange rate volatility, Brexit uncertainty and a subdued global economy, weaken trading conditions for UK exporters. In contrast, consumer spending is expected to remain resilient with earnings growth forecast to continue to exceed price growth over the forecast period and unemployment forecasted to remain low by historic standards.

The BCC’s latest forecast is a clear warning sign that the next Prime Minister must set out a clear roadmap for how the political impasse in Westminster can be broken and an agreement reached to prevent further slowdown in the economy.

The Chamber Network is also calling for a strong and clear strategy on the domestic agenda, including urging the next government to use the forthcoming Comprehensive Spending Review to affirm its commitment to delivering major infrastructure projects, such as HS2, that underpin economic growth.

The BCC forecast assumes that the UK avoids a messy and disorderly exit from the EU. Another scenario would lead to revisions in the next forecast.

Commenting on the forecast, Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“The revisions to our forecast suggest that the UK economy is likely to remain on a disappointingly subdued growth path for some time to come.

“It is increasingly likely that the temporary boost from historically high stockpiling in Q1, which has marginally improved the growth outlook for this year, will be surpassed over the medium-term by the negative impact from the running down of these inventories. The downward pressure on business activity and investment intentions from the unwinding of stocks is likely to be exacerbated somewhat by increasing cost pressures and Brexit uncertainty, slowing overall economic growth across the forecast period.

“The deteriorating outlook for business investment is a key concern as it limits the UK’s productivity potential and long-term growth prospects. On the upside, household spending, a key driver of UK economic output, is expected to be supported by relatively low unemployment and positive real wage growth.

“A messy and disorderly exit from the EU remains the main downside risk to the UK’s economic outlook as the disruption caused would increase the likelihood of the UK’s weak growth trajectory translating into a more pronounced deterioration in economic conditions.”

Responding to the forecast, Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, added:

“While politicians are distracted, businesses are left with no choice but to try and prepare for the unwanted possibility of leaving the European Union on 31st October without a deal and transition period. Businesses are putting resources into contingency plans, such as stockpiling, rather than investing in ventures that would positively contribute to long-term economic growth. This is simply not sustainable. Business communities expect the next Prime Minister to quickly find a sensible and pragmatic way forward to avoid a messy and disorderly Brexit. 

“The UK’s low-growth trajectory makes clear that we can’t afford for Westminster to keep turning a blind eye to the domestic agenda. The upcoming Comprehensive Spending Review is an opportunity for the next government to affirm its commitment to support economic growth, including investment in the skills and training system and infrastructure projects, such as high-speed rail and the city regeneration schemes linked to them. Businesses will also be expecting action to alleviate the heavy burden of upfront costs, which stunt growth.”

Key points in the forecast:

  • UK GDP growth forecast for 2019 is upgraded from 1.2% to 1.3% and downgraded from 1.3% to 1.0% in 2020 and from 1.4% to 1.2% in 2021
  • Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.0% in Q2 2019, down from 0.5% growth in Q1
  • Forecast for business investment growth been downgraded to -1.3% for 2019 (from -1.0%) and to 0.4% for 2020 (from 0.6%), before growth of 1.1% in 2021
  • BCC expects export growth of 1.6%, 1.6% and 1.7%, compared to import growth of 4.3%, 1.8% and 2.2%.
  • Forecast for growth in household consumption been upgraded to 1.4% for 2019 (from 1.3%), followed by growth of 1.4% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021
  • Average earnings growth is expected to outstrip inflation over the period, with growth of 3.0%, 2.9% and 3.0% respectively, compared with inflation of 2.1% in 2019 and 2020, and 2.0% on 2021
  • UK official interest rates are expected to remain at 0.75% throughout 2019, before rising to 1.0% in 2020
  • In terms of sectors, growth in services has been upgraded to 1.4% (from 1.1%) in 2019 but downgraded to 1.2% (from 1.3%) and to 1.4% (from 1.7%). Growth in manufacturing has also been upgraded for 2019 to 1.0% (from 0.5%) in 2019 but downgraded to 0.5% (from 0.7%) in 2020 and 0.7% (from 0.8%) in 2021. Construction sector growth is expected of 1.0%, 0.9% and 1.0% respectively.

The Journey to employee-ownership

There are over 350 Employee-Owned businesses in the UK delivering around 4% of GDP and the sector includes companies such as John Lewis and more recently Richer Sounds, so when Risk and Policy Analysts decided to take the step to becoming employee-owned they were in good company. At our South Norfolk Networking Breakfast at Park Farm Hotel on June 13th we were very lucky to have Peter Floyd, former Managing Director, with us discussing their journey and the factors that led them to taking that step.

RPA has been going for over 30 years and was originally set up by Pete and his wife Meg providing policy consultancy to the European Commission, chemical industry, and public bodies across a number of different areas. They grew from nothing to having 30 employees based in Loddon with a £3m turnover. For the past ten years Pete and Meg have been looking for the right way to move away from the business in order to take a back seat while still looking after their employees. As Pete highlighted, when you start a business no-one explains that success also means you’re responsible for other peoples’ mortgages, children, and livelihoods so closing the business and making people redundant wasn’t an option.

They tried several times to sell the business but often found that the new owners wanted them to stay on for a period of time and the process was complex. They explored the options available to them for employee ownership and found that advice differed expert to expert, employee ownership is still evolving, and advice was costly. Once they had made sense of the advice given to them they came up with criteria for employee ownership that would make it right for RPA so the company is owned and influenced via the Employee Ownership Trust with no buying and selling of shares so the process of joining and leaving the company remains straightforward and profits are shared fairly based on length of service and salary.

The main thing delegates were left thinking about was that there is no “right” way to exit your own business, it has to be right for you and your employees and that getting advice from a number of advisors means you can decide on the best approach for you. All in all it was a really interesting morning learning about a route that more and more businesses are looking at as a viable option to retain their independence.

Norfolk Wildlife Trust, the country’s oldest wildlife trust, were our feature charity for the morning and were the inspiration for our networking activity “if your business were an animal which animal would it be and why”… They look after over 50 nature reserves across the county and provide a number of education services. 

Why not join us at our next networking event? Take a look at all our upcoming events here.  

Building Supply Chain Skills Capacity

Norfolk County Council and partners, Norfolk Chambers and the Growth Hub, are working with the Swedish energy group, Vattenfall to encourage local Norfolk businesses to engage with and bid for contracts associated with big infrastructure and other complex projects. 

Vattenfall’s Norfolk Vanguard and Norfolk Boreas offshore wind farm projects aim to supply 10% of the UK’s domestic electricity needs and represent potentially multibillion pound investments into the East of England over their thirty year operational lifespan. The range of goods and services required to build and operate the projects successfully is huge, from onshore surveying and preconstruction preparation, to cable joining to hospitality services, to fabrication, to marine logistics.   

The onshore work for Norfolk Vanguard is likely to be out for tender in early 2021 and Norfolk Council and its partners are developing a programme of assistance to encourage a wider range of local companies to understand, prepare, engage and ultimately successfully bid for elements of the work planned. 

Rob Lilly, Procurement & Supply Chain Manager for Vattenfall said:  

“Over 70% of companies wanting to supply to the renewable energy sector, listed the ability to engage with the developer, as an area they needed support with.  This is a great opportunity to meet the people behind the project, who can give you a great insight into what Vattenfall are looking for from our suppliers. Sustainability is something we consider and local companies, being part of a local supply chain make perfect sense.” 

This programme will create a model, which will assist in the development of small to medium size companies (SMEs) in our region, to enable them to take advantage of major contracts as they appear, not just the current windfarm projects.  Vattenfall, as a key partner of this project, are committed to helping with this development process as much as they can. 

Vattenfall have already held two major supply chain events in Norfolk to start the conversation with Norfolk SME’s.  Over the next 6 months, the partners are planning a series of smaller events/workshops in co-operation with Vattenfall, to raise awareness, increase business readiness and address supply chain and business development. 

Norfolk County Council and partners are inviting Norfolk SME’s to grasp this opportunity by making themselves aware of the opportunities available, reviewing their capabilities and capacity and planning their development to be able to bid for and win major contract work such as this. 

Commenting on the upcoming workshops, Tom Humphries, Skills Policy Manager for Norfolk County Council said:

“Many SMEs don’t recognise that they have the skills or capabilities to enter the supply chains of larger projects or infrastructure developments. In partnership with Vattenfall and the Norfolk Chambers, Norfolk County Council look forward to working with interested small businesses to identify and support these skills and to take advantage of future contract opportunities.” 

Asked why local businesses should consider attending the free supply chain workshops, Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said:

“Many local SMEs do not realise that they have the capability to be part of a large scale supply chain. Our workshops are designed to highlight what they do need to be involved and will also help identify any areas that the SME may need to adapt/upgrade to be able to compete.  We will also be looking to see how we can support those businesses to gear up to be ready.  Whether that is help with upskilling, access to finance for new equipment or support for their management teams.” 

The first events are planned for Dereham on 02 July and North Walsham on 03 July and will focus on business awareness in relation to the opportunities presented by the Vattenfall windfarms.  

To find out more and book your place, please click on the below links: 

Dereham – 02 July 2019

North Walsham – 03 Jul 2019   

Following the workshops will be an opportunity to talk directly to the UK Supply Chain Manager – please register your interest to be allocated a slot by emailing: [email protected]

Chambers and COBCOE combine networks to support UK and European businesses through Brexit and beyond

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) and the Council of British Chambers of Commerce in Europe (COBCOE) announce that they have reached an agreement that will see 24 additional British Chambers across Europe become part of the BCC’s Global Business Network – significantly expanding the leading business organisation’s reach and practical, real-world support for trade between the UK and the Continent.

The agreement means that the BCC Global Business Network now includes 49 British Chambers around the world – doubling the strength of the network in markets worldwide.

The move creates new connections and support for both UK and European businesses, at precisely the time they need them most. 

With the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU still uncertain, the British Chambers of Commerce and COBCOE have taken a strategic decision to bring their networks together – ensuring that firms have a front door not just in every region and nation of the UK, but in major capitals and commercial centres across the European continent as well.

Thanks to the move – led by BCC President Francis Martin and the COBCOE Board – both UK firms and European firms will be able to harness opportunities for trade and access practical advice, support and connections to keep trading across borders, regardless of political change.

Francis Martin, President of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

“We are delighted to welcome so many new members from across Europe into BCC’s global business network.

“From Manchester to Madrid, Aberdeen to Amsterdam, and Belfast to Bucharest, the British Chamber network will be best-placed to help firms trading across borders in Europe and beyond.

“Our Global Business Network supports two-way international trade and provides practical solutions to trading challenges. Expanding BCC’s membership to include overseas British Chambers across Europe means that we will now be able to assist businesses practical support, advice and connections in almost 50 countries all around the world.

“As we face the challenges and opportunities of Brexit, we can think of no better business response than delivering practical, real-world connections between countries all across Europe and the regions and nations of the UK.”

Garry Parker, Chair of COBCOE, said:

“The fusion of COBCOE members into the BCC’s Global Business Network creates an unrivalled business network with a truly global reach.

“British Chambers of Commerce across Europe have a long and important history, supporting businesses trading across boundaries for many decades, and representing the interests of both British and European businesses. 

“This agreement – which was unanimously approved by COBCOE’s membership – will enhance and grow those connections, boosting connectivity between UK and European businesses and creating new opportunities at a time of great political uncertainty.”

Time is running out for Talking Tech early bird tickets!

Our flagship technology conference makes its return to The Space Norwich this September, but time is running out to get your hands on early bird tickets! Ending on Friday 21 June, the ticket discount applies to tickets for both Norfolk Chambers members and non-members. The conference is open to all businesses who are looking to improve and advance on the ways they use technology in the workplace, as well as learn about upcoming trends and tools. 2019’s conference will bring together over 20 industry experts through panel discussions, keynote speakers and workshops to enhance your knowledge on specialist subjects, following our theme of ‘myth busting’. Every business is adopting new technology, every business is becoming a technology business, but what are the myths and barriers that hinder those transitions? That’s what our guests on stage will be joining us to answer.  New speakers are being added to the line-up every week, meaning a wide range of topics will be covered, and your questions will be answered by those with the knowledge. Panel discussions will be brought back this year following their popularity at 2018’s conference, meaning you can ask your questions live to our panels.  There will also be a technology themed exhibition at the conference and a networking lunch to follow the main talks.  Talking Tech 2019 is sponsored by Breakwater IT and Naked Element. To find out more about the event, see the speaker line-up or book tickets, please click here.