Commenting on the Office for National Statistics inflation figures for June 2022, Chief Operating Officer, Nova Fairbank said:
“The rise in Consumer Prices Index inflation to 9.4% is the ninth monthly increase in a row and another record high.
“That represents a huge amount of cost pressure that businesses and households across the UK have had to absorb. These costs are set to rise further with surges in energy bills coming down the track.
“This squeeze on businesses’ operating costs is also reflected in the latest Producer Price Inflation figures which show a 24% rise in the year to June 2022, the highest level since records began in 1985.
“Against that background it is no wonder that two out of three firms are telling us they expect to raise their own prices, and three quarters are reluctant to invest.
“It is vital that Government sends business a clear signal that despite political upheaval it can still take action on the economy. Beginning a long-promised review of the Shortage Occupations List to ease the incredibly tight labour market would be a start.
“The autumn budget must then be the main priority of the new Prime Minister and Chancellor – a chance for them to reset, rethink and get their house in order.
“This inflationary surge sits alongside a poor economic outlook and unless the Government acts with urgency the chances of a recession will only increase.”
Apprenticeships Broadland – which offers apprenticeships in Norfolk under the guidance of Broadland District Council was recently launched in Norwich. The initiative will provide help and advice for those unsure about their future.
Hamish Melville, Head of Economic Development for Broadland Council, said: “More young people need more options. We want to make sure young people know there’s a vocation for them, and employers want to hire someone who has done an apprenticeship and worked up the ranks so they can do the job on their own. There’s another way than just university.”
The scheme’s aim is to support young people to ‘earn while they learn’ through business administration, customer service, team leading, retail, warehousing and storage, equestrian studies, hairdressing, dentistry, health and social care and construction.
Krystyna Burns started her apprenticeship five years ago and is now a Contracts and Compliance Co-ordinator at Broadland Council. She said: “I didn’t learn well in a classroom and instead I got to learn on the job, which was great. I have been offered so many progression opportunities and I feel like I have really established myself in my role.”
Josh Baldwin started his customer service apprenticeship at his father’s firm, Unique Signs, Norwich, and describes the experience as “100pc worth it”. He said: “A lot of my friends are going to university but they aren’t guaranteed a job when they graduate. I do something different every day and get to try all different parts of the business.”
Ninety per cent of apprentices stay in employment after finishing. The specialist training provided by Broadland Apprenticeship allows experienced assessors to offer guidance and support from the moment people sign up for an apprenticeship.
Organisers said: “We’ve had lots of young people and employers through the door, there’s been a steady stream of people and it’s great to build new relationships.
BCC downgrades its growth forecasts: from 1.0% to 0.6% in 2013, and from 1.8% to 1.7% in 2014
Prospects should improve in the medium term: in 2015, we forecast growth of 2.2%
Downward revision due to numerous factors, such as the contraction of GDP in Q4 2012, and worsening prospects in the eurozone
Unemployment forecast is 50,000 lower than in December
Public sector borrowing is forecast at £89.7bn in 2012/13, £9.2bn higher than the OBR predicted in December 2012
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) today (Thursday) has published its latest economic forecast, which sees UK growth in 2013 revised downwards from 1.0% to 0.6% in 2013, and from 1.8% to 1.7% in 2014. Businesses are resilient and have the ambition needed to drive our national recovery forward, but reduced global growth prospects, and the ongoing need to repair Britain’s balance sheet, will slow the pace of the UK recovery over the next couple of years. However prospects will gradually improve in the medium term. We hope to see the Chancellor use his Budget on March 20th to deliver radical measures, including a significant re-prioritization of resources, to enable businesses to create jobs, invest and export.
Economic Forecast
UK GDP
The BCC is cutting its UK growth forecast for 2013 from 1.0% to 0.6% in 2013 and to 1.7%, down from 1.8%, in 2014.
In December 2012, we predicted growth of 1.0% in 2013 and 1.8% in 2014.
The downward revision to our forecasts is due to the following factors: 1) the unexpected 0.3% GDP decline in Q4 2012; 2) worsening global growth prospects, mainly in the eurozone; and 3) the ongoing need to mend Britain’s public finances.
We expect UK growth to improve gradually over the medium term, but the recovery will be slow by historical standards.
For 2015, we predict stronger UK GDP growth of 2.2%.
Main components of demand
Household consumption. After rising by 1.0% in 2012, household consumption will grow by 1.0% in 2013, 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. Gradual declines in inflation over the next two years, though slower than expected in December, will ease the squeeze on disposable incomes and create moderate increases in domestic demand.
Business investment has been volatile in quarterly terms over the last year or so. Despite the weakness of the economy, we expect business investment to strengthen gradually, growing by 5.0% in 2013, 5.1% in 2014, and by 5.2% in 2015.
The much-needed rebalancing of the UK economy has remained slow. In 2012 exports fell by 0.3% and imports rose by 2%. Our new forecast is that exports will grow by a very modest 1.1% in 2013, accelerating gradually to 3.3% in 2014, and 4.1% in 2015. Within this total, there will be a further shift in exports away from the European Union towards other faster-growing regions, mainly Asia.
The current account deficit worsened sharply in 2012 to 3.3% of GDP, approaching its highest level since 1980. This reflected the much larger trade deficit, and a large fall in investment income. Over the next few years, the current account deficit is forecast to narrow, but at a modest pace to 3.0% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014, and 2.4% in 2015.
Main sectors of the economy
Manufacturing is still a strong sector, but its relative share of total UK output has fallen in recent decades, and now accounts for only 10.5% of the whole economy. We expect manufacturing output to fall by 0.5% in 2013, followed by modest positive growth of 1.0% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015.
Weak growth in world trade will limit the scope for increases in manufacturing exports over the next few years. Given that manufacturing is now productive and well managed, it has the potential to recover, and many firms have retained their skill bases during the recession. However the sector has experienced large productivity falls and this must be remedied.
Construction remains a weak and volatile sector in the UK economy, with a full-year decline of 8.2% in 2012, and a year-on-year fall of 9.3% in Q4 2012. In full-year terms, we predict that construction output will fall by a further 0.6% in 2013, followed by positive but weak growth of 1.0% in 2014 and 1.1% in 2015.
Service sector average growth is forecast at 1.1% in 2013, 2.1% in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, a stronger performance than the other sectors. The service sector is by far the largest sector in the UK economy, and accounts for 77% of total output.
Unemployment
We predict that total UK unemployment will increase from 2.501 million (7.8% of the workforce) in Q4 2012, to 2.600 million (7.9% of the workforce) in Q2 2014, a net increase of 99,000 in the jobless total. This means that we are expecting an unemployment peak that is 50,000 lower than our previous forecast.
We also expect employment to increase, but any new jobs that are created will not be enough to absorb the increase in the number of economically active people.
This new forecast reflects the expectations that the increased flexibility and resilience of the UK labour market will be maintained. Nevertheless, we still expect moderate increases in the UK jobless total due to the following reasons: 1. Some of the planned public spending cuts that are yet to be implemented will have an adverse impact on jobs. 2. Low UK GDP growth will dampen demand for labour 3. Productivity falls seen since 2008 will start to partially reverse, and this will add to the jobless total at a time when demand remains weak.
Youth unemployment is forecast to increase from 974,000 in Q4 2012 to 995,000 in Q2 2014. We expect unemployment in the 16-17 age group to total around 205,000 (a jobless rate of 38.5%) in Q2 2014. Unemployment in the 18-24 age group is forecast to total around 790,000 (a jobless rate of 18.8%) in Q2 2014.
Public finances and inflation
Our public sector borrowing forecast for 2012/13 is £89.7 billion, £9.2 billion higher than the OBR predicted in December 2012.
In average full-year terms, we are now predicting annual CPI inflation at 2.7% in 2013, 2.3% in 2014, and 2.2% in 2015. Our new CPI inflation forecasts are higher than in December for 2013 and 2014.
For RPI inflation we are now predicting 3.4% in 2013, 3.0% in 2014, and 3.1% in 2015.
Interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE)
We expect official UK interest rates to remain at 0.5% until Q4 2014, and then to rise modestly, to 0.75% in Q1 2015, and to 1.00% in Q2 2015. This means that any future interest rate increases are likely to occur later than we predicted in December.
In December, we thought that Quantitative Easing would not be increased further. We now predict that there will be a £50bn increase in QE to £425bn in Q2 2013, probably in May. Our view remains that increasing QE in the near future is unnecessary and would be unduly risky.
Commenting, John Longworth, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“Our new forecast highlights the challenges facing the UK economy over the months and years ahead. We have advocated reducing the deficit, but have for some considerable time said that this must be coupled with a plan for growth, together creating a new model economy that will allow businesses to create jobs, invest and export.
“Businesses up and down the country tell me they are confident and determined to grow. More must be done to support the ambitions of growing companies, many of whom will be the wealth creators of tomorrow.
“This is why we are calling for decisive action in the Budget. The government must make a serious effort to deliver on the many promises already made. This requires a focus on implementing measures that will boost growth, such as the movement of the business bank from rhetoric to reality, increasing the availability of access to finance, and delivering key infrastructure projects that will raise the confidence of businesses on the ground.
“Politicians across the entire spectrum need to show imagination and leadership. If they demonstrate the courage to put Britain’s economic priorities above politics, they can make a real difference in transforming our economy so that Britain can lead the way and attract enterprise and investment for years to come.”
David Kern, BCC Chief Economist, added:
“Talk of a new recession is currently pessimistic. The ONS’ own data revisions raise doubts as to whether there was in fact a recession early in 2012. Following the 0.3% fall in Q4 2012, GDP is likely to increase by 0.1% in Q1 2013. We expect quarterly growth to increase very gradually over the next two years, but it will remain modest and below-trend for some time. In addition, we now expect GDP to return to its pre-recession levels early in 2015, and the squeeze on living standards will continue for a while longer.
“Our new forecast indicates that in 2012/13, and over the next three financial years, public sector borrowing will be higher than the OBR predicted in December. Our persistent fiscal challenges have contributed to the UK’s downgrading by Moody’s. Reducing the structural deficit, which remains unacceptably high, is proving a longer and more painful task than initially thought. But combining this policy with effective measures to boost growth is critical to avoid a vicious circle of weak growth and ballooning deficits.
“The debate about the UK monetary regime ahead of the arrival of Mark Carney as next Bank of England Governor has generated expectations that QE will be increased shortly, and that the MPC is now more willing to tolerate higher inflation and a much weaker pound. These perceptions are problematic. Adding to QE should only be considered if new threats emerge to the stability of the UK banking system. In the meantime, we believe that more QE would only provide marginal benefits for the economy, while heightening longer-term risks of financial distortions, bubbles and higher inflation.”
Welcome Nicole (pictured left) and Jordan (pictured right) who have started working at Norfolk Chamber of Commerce this month. They are both joining the newly created Customer Experience Team, with the aim of finding out about our 950+ members and how we can best support them.
Find out more about them below and why they are excited about working for Norfolk’s largest business membership organisation.
Nicole Risby
Nicole spent most of her young adult years working for the family business, Turners and Moore. Her father purchased this company when she moved to England in 2005 from Puerto Rico. When her father retired he promoted Nicole and her brother to Directors, and they worked alongside one other for four years. Nicole decided she wanted to move on from the family business to experience more opportunities, from there she worked for Youngs Doors, part of the RG Carter Group, as admin/transport co-ordinator. She then worked at Anglian Home Improvements in 2017 in the Quality Assurance Team ensuring calls were compliant and coaching agents on improving call quality and customer satisfaction.
On starting her role today, Nicole said: “I have always been interested in the Norfolk Chamber of Commerce, the support that is provided for new businesses to grow, develop and seize an opportunity is aid we need in today’s society where there are so many barriers and obstacles. I am a people person, so meeting customers and helping them excel their business is going to be so rewarding. It’s important that we all come together and help each other succeed, that is what excites me about this opportunity. I am grateful to have found not just ‘a job´ but what I hope to be a long career here within the Chamber.”
Jordan Domin
Jordan has spent the last two years working as a recruitment consultant for one of the largest agencies in East Anglia. She really enjoyed her time with them as it gave her the opportunity to meet and speak to so many different people but when the opportunity to work for the Norfolk Chamber of Commerce came up she jumped at the chance. Before working in recruitment Jordan was a trainee manager for a national wine merchants and has a qualification in wine, although she admits her skills are now somewhat rusty, she stills enjoy the odd glass or two. Jordan also has a small dog that she enjoys exploring the wilds of Norfolk with and drags along with her most places she goes.
Jordan started her new role last week and said: “I’m really excited to be joining a team that’s building a new experience for both members and non-members and looking forward to getting involved in the numerous events they hold throughout the year. In my first few days it’s been interesting learning about their current way of doing things and the chance to build on this and increase engagement with both member and non-members is really exciting for me.”
You may well see Nicole or Jordan at an event very soon. If you would like to get in touch about membership please call 01603 625977 or email [email protected]
As the UK marks its official departure from the European Union – Friday 31 January 2020 and starts an 11- month transition period, Norfolk Chambers is calling on the county’s business communities to work together to ensure the business voice is clearly heard during the transition period and beyond.
Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said:
“In business communities across Norfolk, this historic moment will bring a mixture of regret for some and celebration for others – but this is just the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
“Decisions made during the next phase of negotiations will influence the business environment for decades to come. Businesses are likely to face significant changes in the way they trade, both in Europe and across the world. The government must clearly communicate what those changes will be – and provide timely guidance and support to help firms adapt and make the most of new opportunities as Britain sets its own trading polices. “Our business communities are pragmatic and want to move on from the emotional arguments around Brexit that have stymied confidence and investment for so long.
“Working in partnership with the British Chambers of Commerce and the rest of the Chamber network across the UK, Norfolk Chambers want to work with ministers to get the details right on issues like customs, regulation and immigration – and they are desperate to avoid more of the cliff-edges that have affected their operations in recent years.
“On the domestic front, spades in the ground for new and improved infrastructure, better skills and training, and action to lower the up-front costs facing UK businesses are urgently needed to boost confidence and unlock investment.”
Help and support is available to businesses as they prepare for the changes that will come as a result of the UK leaving the EU. During the transition period it should be ‘business as usual’. However business owners and their senior teams should be considering what steps they need to take following 31 December 2020. A good starting point for businesses is the Chambers Business Checklist, which has been recently updated.
If you have any specific questions that you need answered, the following people would be happy to help:
Four out of five employers (81%) say they have been impacted by the increase in National Insurance contributions
Higher prices, reduced investment and increased staff costs were among the main effects cited
Employers expect wages to increase by a median average of 5% over the next year
Research carried out by the British Chambers of Commerce, of more than 1,100 UK employers, has uncovered a series of negative impacts from the increase in National Insurance contributions.
Firms said the rise in employer contributions to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15.05% had increased staffing costs, forced some to put up their prices, and meant they would be limiting their investment.
As part of its call for an Emergency Budget, the BCC is calling for the rise to be immediately reversed for at least a year, as firms battle surging costs on multiple fronts.
The BCC is calling for action to give businesses a chance to keep a lid on rising prices, boost productivity and ease cost pressures.
Hannah Essex, Co-Executive Director of the BCC, said:
“Businesses are telling us that the rise in National Insurance contributions has been a body blow as they try to get back on their feet.
“When firms are already facing a toxic mix of surging inflation, rising energy costs and supply chain disruption, this increase is very hard to swallow.
“The tight labour market is already pushing up staff costs and the NI rise has only served to exacerbate that pressure, without having a positive impact on recruitment.
“With firms’ profits also taking a further hit, after two years of the pandemic, it is no surprise that their investment intentions are also weakening.
“But it is not too late to change tack and push the increase back until firms are in a better place to take on the extra burden.
“The costs crises facing firms and people in the street are two sides of the same coin. If we can ease the pressure on businesses, then they can keep a lid on the price rises.
“Acting now will also put businesses in a better position to create the future profits needed to fill tax coffers.”
The other two Emergency Budget proposals include:
Help firms manage the impact of rising energy prices by cutting VAT on their energy bills from 20% to 5% for a minimum of one year.
Address labour shortages by reinstating free Covid tests for companies to ease the strain on productivity caused by persistent high absences
Photo credit: Getty Images/Chamber Canva Pro usage 2022
Percentage of UK businesses reporting increased export sales remains flat for the 5th quarter in a row at 29%
A quarter (25%) of exporters saw decreased sales, while 46% report no change
Concerns over manufacturing recovery as exporters report unprecedented cost pressures and inflation worries
A survey of over 2,600 UK exporters has revealed that overseas sales growth has been effectively stagnant for more than a year since the economy fully reopened after lockdown.
The BCC’s quarterly Trade Confidence Outlook for Q2 2022 showed the proportion of exporters reporting increased overseas sales to be unchanged from Q1 at 29%, while those reporting a decrease remained at 25%.
This compares to around 40% of businesses consistently reporting increased domestic sales across the same time period in the BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES).
Manufacturers trading overseas are under particular pressure, with only 39% expecting their profitability to increase in the next twelve months, compared to 48% of service sector exporters. This compares to 43% of all businesses surveyed in the QES.
Manufacturing exporters are also the most likely (78%) to expect to raise prices in the next year, a record high.
Almost nine out of 10 (89%) firms in this sector cite ‘raw materials’ as their biggest cost pressure, with 74% citing ‘utilities’ and 70% citing labour costs.
Responding to the findings, Chief Executive Officer at the Norfolk Chambers, Nova Fairbank said:
“The combination of supply chain disruption, soaring prices, and the impact of Brexit red tape and compliance costs has had a chilling effect on exports, especially for smaller firms already scarred by the pandemic.
“Recent ONS figures have shown in increase in exports to the EU, driven in part by shortages caused by the war in Ukraine. But our data shows there are serious underlying issues – which are hitting smaller manufacturing exporters the hardest.
“Any new Prime Minister must acknowledge the huge challenges being faced by our exporters – often the most dynamic, innovative and forward-thinking businesses in the UK economy.
“Then Government must help businesses to harness the opportunities provided by existing free trade agreements, and those coming on stream. Far too many firms are either unaware of the possibilities or are uncertain how to take advantage.
“Chambers of Commerce have the expertise and business network to help Government shift the dial. By working together, we can build an end-to-end support service for our exporters which could truly make a difference.”
Future Spaces was held on Thursday 21st July, and hosted by Layrd Design at Norwich City Football Club. The event was all about exploring sustainability and wellness in interior spaces.
The event started with networking with a selection of drinks and plant-based canapes offered to the attendees followed by an introduction to the event by Will Mayes from Layrd Design.
The first speaker was Ruscha Fields from The Good Plant Company. Ruscha talked about biophilic design and how to successfully incorporate planting within the workplace. Ruscha stated that having plants present makes us feel connected to nature and the environment ultimately making us feel relaxed and calmer. Having plants in the workplace has been proven to enhance wellbeing and increase productivity. If you are worried about the upkeep of having numerous plants around the office then why not get artificial plants, these give off the same positive effect as real plants. Ruscha was also involved in the Moss workshop which took place after her talk. Here attendees built their own moss frame which they could take home and put in their office.
After a short break, Michael Aastrup from Tarkett talked about their company’s approach to sustainability. Tarkett is the 3rd largest flooring company in the world, and they have now taken the approach of putting sustainability first ahead of design and functionality. Tarkett recycle old carpets and fishnets for yarn and even acquire the film from car windscreens to use in their products. Michael stated how committed Tarkett is to better living spaces and promoting healthy indoor environments, one way they show this is with their unique dust capture system in their carpets.
The last speaker to finish the event was Nathan Huxley from Orange Box. Nathan spoke to us about the importance of being/working together and creating spaces people want to be in. He spoke to us about the idea of relationship buildings “where the ‘office’ is no longer the health problem, it’s the wellness solution”. The top of the terrace, where the event was held was kitted out with furniture from Orange box for everyone to try, which you can see below. A group favourite was their QT pod which provided privacy and comfort to work in.
Future Spaces provided some interesting points businesses should consider around sustainability and wellbeing in the workplace, and how having a small plant on your desk can make a huge difference.
Chamber member, RG Carter has been successful in securing the contract to build Dudgeon Offshore Wind’s new Operations and Maintenance base in Great Yarmouth. The base will be located at Berth 9, next to the River Yare within the Great Yarmouth Port. Work commenced in early July and is expected to be completed during the second quarter of 2016.
RG Carter have been contracted to convert an existing warehouse into Dudgeon’s permanent office and logistics facility. The finished building will include a two storey facility, integrated into the existing framework of the warehouse. There will be sufficient spaces for Dudgeon’s onshore workforce, as well a dedicated 24 hour a day control centre to monitor and mange the windfarm’s production.
Commenting on the awarded contract, Rune Rønvik, the Dudgeon Operations Manager said:
“Commencing building work on Dudgeon’s new O&M base is a significant milestone for the project as we continue our preparations for the wind farm’s operational phase” comments. We are happy to have awarded this important contract to RG Carter and look forward to further establishing ourselves as an integral part of the local business community.”
The Skills Funding Agency is running a series of small business webinars to inform and update on apprenticeships and traineeships. A series of six 30 minute webinars will be available to small businesses across Norfolk and Suffolk for free!
The webinars will feature a presentation delivered by an apprenticeship expert, Anna Morrison. They will cover a range of topics on apprenticeships from: the business benefits; employers’ experiences on how apprenticeships have worked for them; and the Government grants available to support with salary costs.
Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said:
“At Norfolk Chamber our apprentices form an integral part of our work force and are a valuable asset to our business. I would recommend all employers to find out more about apprenticeships and so we welcome these short free webinars, which will help answer many employers’ questions.”
The free webinars will be held on the following dates:
The King’s Lynn Climate Change Expo was held at the Corn Exchange on Tuesday 21st June 2022 from 10am – 4pm.
The purpose of the event was to showcase the best Norfolk businesses who are able to support businesses and individuals on their net-zero journey, to inform on decarbonisation measures available to local businesses, and provide advice on how to progress decarbonisation works, to reach the 2050 net-zero target.
The event was free to attend, and we saw many organisations send multiple employees. They were representing a total of 75 organisations across Norfolk, from micro to large corporates, including, Aviva, the US Airforce, the MOD and Konectbus.
The indoor space ranged from a full shell scheme to stand-alone tables, and outside exhibitor space was on the Tuesday Marketplace.
The indoor Exhibitors featured Norfolk businesses including The Norfolk Chambers of Commerce and event Co.llaborators, The Borough Council of King’s Lynn & West Norfolk.
With special thanks to our Sponsors, Westcotec and to all of our exhibitors, workshop speakers, and attendees.
Special thanks also to Paul Kunes B.A. (Hons), Cabinet Member for Environment, Climate change and CO2 reduction, and the team at The Borough Council of King’s Lynn & West Norfolk.
You can view the event photos on our Facebook page here
“This rise is the clearest signal yet of the Bank of England’s intention to get inflation under control. Spiralling prices are cited by businesses as by far and away the top concern right now.
“However, given the extremely precarious state of the economy, this decision is not without risk for businesses and consumers that are exposed to banking or overdraft facilities.
“There are many causes of the current inflation crisis – global supply chain problems, trade barriers, soaring energy costs, increased taxes, and labour market shortages. Interest rate rises alone will do little to address these.
“Worryingly, our research indicates strongly that most small businesses are not investing for growth, and that longer-term confidence is beginning to wane.”
The Bank of England’s Governor correctly highlighted in his recent Mansion House speech how the incredibly tight labour market is putting upward pressure on inflation.
The BCC has written to the Government outlining a three-point plan on how it can work with businesses to solve these recruitment difficulties.
The steps are:
– Firms must be encouraged to find new ways of unlocking pools of talent – by investing more in training their workforce, adopting more flexible working practises and expanding use of apprenticeships;
– Government must help employers invest in training by reducing the upfront costs on business and providing training related tax breaks; and
-The Shortage Occupation List (SOL) must be reformed to allow sectors facing urgent demand for skills to get what they need.