Responding to the announcement of changes to several key Net Zero policies, Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the BCC, said:“If we are to meet the challenge of making the UK Net Zero by 2050 then we must have pragmatic goals, that business can be confident they will be supported to reach.“Companies want to address climate change but cannot plan for future investment if the sands keep shifting.“This means political consensus about the goals, combined with pragmatism on the solutions. Constant tinkering with Net Zero policies will only have further negative impacts on business confidence and investment plans. “Other countries and trading blocs are pouring billions into low-carbon technology,and we are getting left behind.“But if we get this right, and play to our country’s strengths then there is huge opportunity for UK Plc. It is vital we have a long-term Net Zero strategy which Governmentmustdemonstrate it can stick to.”
Information regarding our International Trade Documentation process: Documents sent to the International Trade team to be stamped are done on the day we receive them. Please be aware that due to current delays with the postal service, post may take longer to be delivered to us. If you have urgent documents that need to be stamped please send these to the below address using next day special delivery or by courier as we have been receiving these in a timely manner. The address to send your documents to is: Norfolk Chambers of Commerce, Hardwick House, 2 Agricultural Hall Plain, Norwich, NR1 3FS If you have any questions about our International Trade Service, please call them on 01603 625977
Reacting to the latest ONS trade data for July, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said:
“Removing the effects of inflation, goods export volumes grew at a decent pace in July, with a 4.4% month on month increase in sales to the EU.
“But a key concern is the continued slowdown in momentum in UK services exports growth – which accounts for just under half of our overseas trade.
“The BCC is recommending that an Exports Council is established by the UK Government to use ONS and other trade data to evaluate, review, and take action to improve UK export performance and strategy.
“As the World Trade Organisation’s World Trade Report this week warned of the global economic consequences of moving away from open, free trade, we must redouble our efforts to open up markets for UK goods and services.”
Detailed Analysis
The data for July shows a 2.1% increase in UK goods export chained volumes (the measure which removes the effects of inflation) on the previous month, and a 0.4% rise in goods import chained values compared with June.
Exports to the EU rose on both the current values and chained volumes measures (by 4.4%) with increases in fuels and machinery sales (including power generators). Exports to the rest of the world experienced downward pressures from fuels, machinery and transport equipment.
Estimated UK services export performance remained at the same levels as in June – on both the chained volumes and current values measures. On services imports the picture was mostly static on both measures. On the chained volumes measure, UK services exports are still 2.9% lower now than in February 2020 at the time lockdowns were applied in many global regions.
Trade Deficit
Overall, there was a slight increase in the deficit for trade in goods and services by £1.2bn to £18.8bn in the three months to the end of July 2023.
New Checks on Food imports from EU February 2024 – Health Certificates required for medium risk animal products, plants, plant products and high-risk food and feed of non-animal origin from the EU.
The BCC has held its inaugural meeting of its new Business Council alongside Cabinet Minister, the Rt Hon Michael Gove and Shadow Chancellor, the Rt Hon Rachel Reeves.The new body, comprising some of the most prominent British businesses, has been brought together to work in partnership with politicians to drive the future of the economy at this crucial time. The Business Council will focus on five key challenges and will develop policy proposals that will help transform the future of the UK economy. Its initial recommendations will feed into a Business Manifesto in the new year that will aim to influence political party manifestos ahead of the General Election. The Council will then work to develop follow-up papers – to help the next Government set a business-backed agenda from day one and establish a long-term strategy for growth. Business Council members will focus on at least one of the challenges. The challenge themes will all be chaired by five experienced business leaders, working with commissions of businesses, experts, Chamber representatives and academics. They will begin meeting in the coming weeks and will produce their first policy recommendations in early 2024. BCC President and Business Council Chair, Baroness Martha Lane Fox, said: “Now more than ever, businesses must come together to tackle the challenges facing the UK economy. “In the face of economic disruption and with a general election looming, our new, national Business Council will help the voice of business to be heard loud and clear by policymakers. ”Together in partnership with politicians, it will find the answers to the key issues facing the UK economy, so it was great to have Michael Gove and Rachel Reeves join us for our inaugural event today. “The expertise and experience that our council members bring to the table allows for a powerful and engaging debate about the problems but also helps to identify the solutions. “Firms are realistic and understand the financial limitations that the Governments of both today and the next five years will be facing. “But it’s through initiatives like these that we can work collectively to make a real difference for businesses on the frontline of the economy and give them the tools they need to succeed. “This was an excellent first meeting to act as a springboard in developing practical and pragmatic policies across the five challenge areas.” The Rt Hon Michael Gove said: “The Government is focused on the Prime Minister’s missions to grow the economy and halve inflation. “Levelling up plays a crucial part in that which is why I’m so pleased to be meeting with leading businesses at the BCC Business Council to discuss challenges and opportunities across the country and am very grateful to the British Chamber of Commerce for their excellent work on the Business Council. “Boosting skills up and down the country and improving digital connectivity are key tenets of spreading opportunity across the UK, and will in, turn, contribute to economic growth.”
Reacting to the latest ONS labour market figures, Jane Gratton, Deputy Director Public Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce said: “Today’s figures show pay for individuals may be improving, but the current situation offers little comfort to businesses up and down the country. Firms are still struggling to contain wage inflation arising from candidate’s expectations and workforce pay settlements. “At the same time, recruitment issues remain a top concern for business. The latest research by the BCC shows record numbers of organisations reporting hiring difficulties – particularly in the hospitality, retail and manufacturing sectors. “The fall in the overall number of job vacancies reflects a weakening economic outlook and BCC’s Quarterly Economic Forecast published last week predicts further growth in unemployment during the next three years. “Underneath these headline figures the skills crisis continues and the labour market picture will remain challenging. Our message to policymakers is clear, invest in skills now for a more prosperous economy”. Norfolk Chambers of Commerce: Recent BCC research shows businesses are suffering from hiring difficulties, especially in hospitality, retail, and manufacturing – all sectors that Norfolk’s economy has in abundance. This further emphasises what was set out in our LSIP: the pressing need to invest in skills and employment opportunities. The concern over the growth in unemployment and the lack of skills is a key issue affecting many business in Norfolk. We’ll be exploring these concerns and discussing ways we can support Norfolk businesses at our upcoming Business Breakfast, on the 19th September 2023.
We were pleased to welcome Andrew Bracking from SalesGeek to the Norfolk Chambers HQ on the 5th of September. Andrew and SalesGeek became members after a successful couple of days exhibiting inside our Norfolk Business Hub at the Royal Norfolk Show back in July. After a brief introduction to the Chambers team, we heard all about SalesGeek and their mission to ‘Change the way the world perceives sales.’ The meeting was a great way to introduce the wider team to the work SalesGeek are doing in Norfolk. The team then enjoyed a session on ‘Do you know what your value proposition is? What is the purpose of your business’ which Andrew presented at our previous Coastal Co.nnect. Every business is set up in one of four ways: Convenience, Uniqueness, Relationship, and Expense, also known as CURE. Examples: Convenience – Amazon Uniqueness – Lego and Lidl, for their reputation of having the best fresh bakery Relationship – Norfolk Chambers of Commerce Expense – Aldi What is your business CURE? “Once you know your C.U.R.E, leverage it, and build stories around it.” A big thank you to Andrew Bracking for joining us and sharing insight into the world of sales, keep your eyes peeled for upcoming Co.next and Co.Solo collaboration events with SalesGeek. Interested in what you have read? Check out SalesGeek here. “Are you ready to get your Geek on and get in touch” – Andrew Bracking – 07590600204
Last night’s Co.next – Norfolk Chambers of Commerce event at Fuel Studios Norwich was everything we wanted it to be… Chilled, relaxed and a great space to connect together while gaining some insight and knowledge. A massive thank you to Tracie Rhodes from Fuel Studios for hosting us and kindly supporting the event. A fantastic working space for new and developing businesses and the perfect place for our Co.Next event. Big thanks to the incredible trio that is Sam Edwards, Rebecca Headden and Rob Dodsworth for speaking and sharing their insights. Some great discussions around the best practices for LinkedIn, content that makes us cringe, how to make your profile stand out for prospective employers and a lot more. Be sure to sign up to our Co.Next mailing list and keep an eye on our social media for the next events! A big thank you to our guest speakers:
Sam Edwards – Sam is founder and Managing Director of Yawn Marketing. Sam has a wealth of experience devising strategy and managing marketing campaigns across a wide variety of industries, with a particular focus on stand-out, creative campaigning. His work champions thoughtful and engaging content at every step.
Bex Headden – Bex is Co-Director of award-winning R13 Recruitment Ltd. Having set up the business 9.5 years ago, it now incorporates a formidable team of 15, a 7-figure turnover, and an instantly recognisable brand synonymous with delivering exceptional service and standards in recruitment in the Norfolk area. Bex is a solution finder, an ideas generator, a collaborator and a supporter of young people in business (having been one back in the day!).
Rob Dodsworth – Rob is founder of Brand Story Studio. A professional, award-winning, photographer in Norfolk, with over 12 years experience working with B2C and B2B clients.
Fragile Economy Stuck In First Gear The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) marginally upgrades its 2023 GDP forecast to 0.4%, but economic activity will remain very weak throughout 2024 and 2025, according to the organisation’s latest Quarterly Economic Forecast. UK Economic Outlook The UK economy remains on course to avoid a technical recession, but growth is likely to remain so feeble that it will be hard to spot the difference. A growth rate of 0.4% is expected for the whole of 2023, dropping to 0.3% in 2024, and nudging up only slightly to 0.7% in 2025. Consistently low economic growth of this nature is comparable to previous periods of economic shocks and recessions such as the oil crises of the 1970s and financial crash of 2008. Core inflation is proving sticky. But while BCC research shows inflation is the top concern for UK firms, fewer businesses now expect their prices to rise over the coming months. The forecast for the CPI rate, therefore, remains unchanged at 5.0% in Q4 2023. However, CPI is now forecast to take longer to return to the Bank of England’s 2% target – only reaching this goal in the last quarter of 2025. Slight upwards revision to GDP While the first ONS estimate of GDP growth for Q2 2023 was better than expected, the BCC forecast expects the next two quarters to flatline – leading to overall growth of 0.4% for the year. This is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast. However, with interest rates now predicted to remain higher for longer, the BCC expects the economy to grow by just 0.3% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2025. This downward revision for the next two years, from the BCC’s previous Q2 forecast of 0.6% and 1% respectively, reflects the negative impact of inflation and interest rates on disposable income and household spending, and their dampening effect on overall business investment. Evidence from recent BCC business surveys also showed business confidence levelling off after a brighter start to 2023. Trade is also likely to continue to suffer, with both imports and exports forecast to be down significantly in 2023 (-4.7% and -4.3% respectively) due to weak global demand and the continuing impact of Brexit. Further regulatory changes at both the UK and EU borders are also likely to weigh on trade flows. With a stronger start to 2023, but a number of economic indicators now flashing red and a subdued global outlook, the BCC predicts business investment will contract by 0.1% in 2024, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage points, before rebounding to 1.2% in 2025. Average earnings to perform more strongly Despite the gloomy economic outlook, average earnings are now expected to grow more strongly over the next three years, with 5.5% growth in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, this is marginally above the forecasts for year-end CPI inflation in the next two years. With core inflation remaining stubborn, and fears that wages could continue to put upward pressure on prices, the Bank of England interest rate is now expected to peak at 5.5% in the second half of 2023. It will then fall more slowly than previously forecast – decreasing by just 0.25 percentage points in 2024 to 5.25%, and then 4.5% in 2025. Further growth in unemployment rate While the number of vacancies continues to decline, the slow rate of change means the labour market is expected to remain tight. This is backed up by BCC research showing record numbers of organisations reporting recruitment difficulties – particularly in the hospitality, retail, and manufacturing sectors. However, some modest growth in the unemployment rate is also expected, with upward revisions for all three years – rising to 4.2% in 2023, 4.7% in 2024, and 4.6% in 2025. Commenting on the forecast, Vicky Pryce, Senior Member of the BCC Economic Advisory Council, said: “The BCC’s latest forecast shows the UK economy is continuing to teeter on the edge of a recession. But the fact is, that with growth predicted to hover so close to zero for three years, it will still feel a lot like one for most people and businesses. “The impact this will have on consumer spending, coupled with a poor trade performance, will only generate more uncertainty for firms. “The Bank of England’s own forecasts take a similarly dour view, so firms will be watching closely to see how this feeds into decision-making around interest rates. “There is currently little on the table to provide companies with any crumbs of comfort. As we head towards an election next year, politicians will have to show how they will work with the business community to find solutions.” Jack Weaver, Chief Operating Officer at Norfolk Chambers of Commerce, said: “This latest forecast from BCC reflects how the confidence of many of our SMEs remains low after three years of economic volatility. Stubbornly high inflation, skills shortages, and new trade barriers with the EU have created a climate of little or no growth. As a result, a significant number of Norfolk businesses are still very much in ‘survival mode’ and we see this particularly acutely in sectors like tourism, hospitality, and food & drink. “A rapidly increasing proportion of our members are also now worried about interest rates, which have dramatically raised borrowing costs in many cases. “With further trade barriers looming, leading to higher import costs, and tightness in the labour market persisting, it is difficult to see how large-scale investment will be unlocked. Government and the Opposition need to work with business to develop a clear path for the economy to promote investment and growth.” ENDSKey points in the forecast:
2023 GDP forecast upgraded to 0.4% from 0.3% in previous forecast.
GDP growth in both 2024 and 2025 downgraded from 0.6% and 1.0% to 0.3% and 0.7% respectively.
Interest rates are set to peak at 5.5% and ease only slightly in 2024 to 5.25% before dropping to 4.5% in 2025, still well above the average for the past 10 years.
The inflation rate is still expected to slow to 5.0% in Q4 2023, but take longer to return to the 2% target, only reaching it in Q4 2025.
Imports, exports, and general government spending are all expected to decline in 2023.
The BCC run the UK’s largest and longest-running independent business survey programme, collecting data from 10,000s of respondents every year. The data on business conditions helps inform the forecast.
Notes to editors:
Spokespeople are available for interview
In February 2023, the BCC’s Quarterly Economic Forecast was the UK’s joint second most accurate forecast by The Sunday Times economic forecast ranking.
About the British Chambers of Commerce - Where Business Belongs The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) sits at the heart of a powerful network of 53 Chambers of Commerce across the UK, representing thousands of firms. It provides a unified voice for these companies, rooted in their communities, at the national level. We link our UK network with over 75 international member chambers, to promote trade and investment, and work for a better future for businesses around the world. For more information, visit: www.britishchambers.org.ukAbout the Norfolk Chambers of Commerce – What You Need Is What We Do We are a business membership organisation, we support start-up businesses, small and medium enterprises, and global brands, the Norfolk Chambers of Commerce embraces and represents the County’s business community. We provide networking opportunities, share knowledge, offer business services, signpost to business opportunities and inspire innovative thinking to enable companies to do better business. For more information, visit our about membership page hereMedia contacts:Norfolk Chambers of Commerce Rick Notley – Marketing & Communications Manager [email protected]British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Steve Partridge – Head of Media and Communications [email protected] +44 (0) 7825 746812 David Pearson – Senior Press Manager [email protected] +44 (0) 7944 342013
The BCC has called for action to improve the availability of finance for SMEs as accessibility, awareness and a lack of competition continue to hold firms back.In written evidence submitted to the Treasury Select Committee today, the BCC said many smaller firms are no longer seeking finance as they consider it too limited and costly.The committee has launched an inquiry into the challenges faced by small and medium sized firms (fewer than 250 employees) when seeking finance.Using feedback from the thousands of businesses within its unique network of 53 chambers across the UK, the BCC told MPs:
Current economic conditions are some of the most difficult seen in generations – and rising interest rates have left an increasing number of firmsworried about borrowing costs
Many businesses feel locked into their current financial provider and are fearful of shopping around
A lack of competition due to poor awareness of options outside the traditional banking route is holding back progress
Unlocking alternative finance options, increasing the flexibility of funding and a comprehensive drive to increase awareness are all needed to shift the dial.
Jonny Haseldine, Policy Manager at the BCC, said:“Research has highlighted that in 2022 almost half of smaller firms (48%) did not borrow any funds. But among those that are currently using finance, half are using more than pre-pandemic and becoming more concerned about their ability to pay.“This is an especially acute issue after many firms were forced to take on much higher debt burdens during the pandemic in order to survive.“The continuing tough economic conditions also mean many SMEs have a huge amount on their plates and don’t have the time or expertise to find thefinance options that work for them.“More needs to be done to help firms find the right solutions. We also need to see the British Business Bank given more resources, greater support for social enterprise lenders, and improved flexibility in funding criteria.“The system desperately needs to change. With investment in the UK economy continuing to toil in the doldrums, we must widen the pool of financial options available to firms to kick-start the growth we need.”
The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) are taking expressions of interest from companies who want to be considered to join our UK trade mission and take advantage of the opportunities offered across the Middle East, Gulf States and beyond. Date: 3rd – 8th December 2023Location: Dubai, UAE Register your interest here The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) is pleased to announce that we will be taking a delegation of Sustainable Infrastructure companies from the English Regions on a trade mission to the UAE. This mission is planned for the 3rd – 8th December 2023 and is a great opportunity to learn about the developments and opportunities in the wider construction sector in the UAE and across the Middle East region. Both the BIG 5 exhibition and COP28 will be taking place in Dubai during the mission dates. If your business is in the infrastructure sector and you are looking to grow internationally, it’s an opportunity not to be missed. Join our Trade Mission: We are taking expressions of interest from companies who want to be considered to join our UK trade mission and take advantage of the opportunities offered across the Middle East, Gulf States and beyond. Places on this mission are limited, so please use the link below to view further information and to register your interest in joining. Find out more about the programme here
What is it? A critical part of our mission to every business in Norfolk is to give them a voice. And one of the most important tools we have to do that is the Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). The Q3 survey is now live and it takes just 3 minutes to complete. Put the kettle on and give us your view on the economy and how it’s impacting your business. Complete the survey hereWhy you should love it The QES is the largest independent business survey in the UK. This matters because the results are used by the Chancellor of Exchequer, Treasury, Bank of England, IMF and many others to make decisions that matter to you. They love the data from QES because it helps spot economic trends well before they appear in official statistics. We love it because every 3-months we get to check in with all our businesses and turn that insight into influence. We do this through conversations with local and central government, shaping our events and development of programmes to support you. How can I get involved? All you need to do is follow the link and anonymously tell us what you think. It only takes a few minutes. Less time than you need to drink a cuppa. Complete the survey here The survey runs until Thursday 14th September, with the results published around 2nd October.