In the first quarter of 2018, what growth we saw in the Norfolk economy was due principally to strong global trading conditions, rather than domestic demand, which remained muted. Uncertainty, recruitment difficulties and price pressures remained persistent concerns for businesses of every shape and size, even if short-term confidence levels remain resilient. Now we are in the second quarter of 2018 – how are Norfolk businesses reacting to the current economic climate? Today (Monday 21 May 2018) is the first day of the fieldwork period for the Q2 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). With the economy appearing to ‘tread water’ in the last quarter and with Brexit still delivering uncertainty, it more important than ever that as many Norfolk businesses as possible complete the survey. The QES is the largest independent business survey in the UK and is used by both the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer to plan the future of the UK economy. It is also closely watched by the International Monetary Fund. You can have your say by completing the QES online NOW It takes less than 3 minutes. The completion deadline for this survey is midnight on Monday 11 June 2018. The Q2 results will be published week commencing 9 July 2018 Key Norfolk findings in the Q1 2018 survey: Manufacturing sector:
- The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales fell slightly from +17 to +16, the lowest since Q1 2017, while domestic orders remained still at +23.
- The balance of firms reporting increased export sales stayed the same +31 – the regional and national figures are now in line with the Norfolk results.
- The percentage of manufacturers that attempted to recruit in the last three months also remained the same at 83%.
- The percentage balance of manufacturers expecting their prices to increase fell from +54% to +49%. The price of raw materials continues to be the primary source of price pressures, with 81% reporting it as a cause (in line with the 80% last quarter).
Services sector:
- Export sales and orders remained unchanged this quarter at +8 and +6 respectively. However, domestic sales and orders both increased at +19 for sales and +13 for orders.
- The percentage of businesses attempting to recruit fell slightly from +65 to +63. Of those, the percentage of services firms reporting greater recruitment difficulties fell from 83% to 63%. Professional and managerial roles are the leading areas of hiring difficulties (53%)
- The balance of services firms expecting prices to increase, fell from +49% to +44%. But the balance of firms citing pay settlements as a source of price pressures rose from 45% to 47%
- The balance of firms reporting cash flow improvements remains quite low at +11 (up slightly from +10 in the previous quarter).
