The previous Quarter 3 results highlighted the continued impact of economic uncertainty on our economy. The manufacturing sector reported the lowest level on exports since the EU Referendum in 2016. And the normally buoyant services sector saw falling domestic and export sales and orders.
Norfolk’ manufacturing sector saw a marked downward shift in many indicators in the third quarter. The balance of firms reported weak sales and domestic orders and export sales dropped to the lowest level since Q1 2016. Business confidence in turnover and profitability among manufacturers fell.
The dominant Norfolk services sector also saw decreased domestic sales and orders and export orders. The balance of firms confident in turnover and profitability improvements fell in quarter three, as did the balance for investment in training.
With Brexit postponed until 31 January and a General Election set for 12 December – we need your help to clearly understand what shape the Norfolk economy is in. The Quarterly Economic Survey for Quarter 4 is now underway and we need to hear from as many Norfolk businesses as possible. Please take the short survey Q4 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES).
The QES is the largest independent business survey in the UK and is used by both the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer to plan the future of the UK economy. It is also closely watched by the International Monetary Fund. It is vital that as many Norfolk businesses as possible take part, so we get a true reflection of the local economy.
You can have your say by completing the QES online NOW. It takes less than 3 minutes. The completion deadline for this survey is midnight on Monday 25 November 2019. The Q4 results will be published in the first week of January 2020.
Key findings in the Q3 2019 survey:
Norfolk Manufacturing sector
- The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales rose from -13 in Q2 2019, to 0, whilst those reporting increased domestic orders rose, but remained in negative territory from -19 to -11.
- The balance of firms reporting improved export sales fell from +23 to -6 and the balance of firms reporting increased export orders dropped from +15 to -24.
- The balance of firms reporting improved cashflow fell into negative territory from +25 to -5.
- The balance of firms increasing investment in plant/machinery rose in the quarter from -19 to +10 remaining historically weak, and investment in training rose from -6 to +10.
- The balance of firms confident that turnover and profitability will increase in the next 12 months fell from +50 to +38 for turnover and from +19 to +14 for profitability.
Norfolk Services sector
- The balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales fell from +12 in Q2 2019 to +8. Those reporting increased domestic orders fell slightly from +4 to 0.
- The balance of firms reporting improved export sales fell from +4 to -5. Those reporting increased export orders continuing in negative territory fell still further from -4 to -5.
- The balance of firms reporting improved cashflow rose very slightly from -5 to +2 but remains weak by historic standards.
- The balance of firms looking to increase investment in plant and machinery drastically fell from +2 to -14 and fell slightly from +10 to +7 in training.
- The balance of firms confident that turnover and profitability will improve over the next year decreased from +30 to +10 for turnover from +12 to -5 for profitability.
