Business Confidence Fragile Going into Global Turmoil
Confidence among firms remained fragile at the start of 2026, despite some small shoots of recovery, according to the UK’s largest business sentiment survey. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey also shows labour costs continued to be the biggest cost concern for businesses in Q1, followed by energy.
Going into the Iran conflict, around half (49%) of responding firms said they expected their turnover to improve in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, even before recent energy price shocks, 52% of businesses cited utilities as a cost pressure.
Ahead of new employment costs and legislation coming into force for businesses this month, the survey shows 73% of firms nationwide cited labour costs as a price pressure. In Norfolk, this jumps to 90%, perhaps reflecting our higher proportion of businesses experiencing the most acute skills challenges.
The survey was carried out by the BCC Insights Unit and the UK-wide Chamber network (including Norfolk), largely before the full impact of the Middle East conflict started to be felt. The fieldwork was conducted between 9 February and 9 March. Over 4,500 businesses across the UK responded online, with 96% of Norfolk respondents being SMEs with fewer than 250 employees.
In over 600 ‘free text comments’ to the BCC, businesses raised concern over the likely impact of the Iran conflict on energy costs and inflation. They also highlighted domestic cost pressures, including minimum wage and employment rights legislation.
Confidence remained fragile before the Iran conflict
Business confidence remained fragile at the start of the year, as firms digested the Autumn budget. 46% of responding firms in our county said they expected their turnover to improve in the next 12 months (compared with 49% nationally). Meanwhile, 33% said they expected no change, and 21% expected a decrease.
Nationally, retail and hospitality continue to be the sectors suffering the most. 39% of hospitality firms expected increased turnover, while over a quarter (27%) expected a decrease. 41% of retailers expected improved turnover, while 29% expected a decrease.
Labour and energy costs continue to hit firms
Labour costs continue to be far and away the biggest cost pressure for businesses, cited by 90% of Norfolk firms. This is significantly higher than the national average of 73%. In the hospitality sector, 85% of businesses across the country cite labour as a cost pressure. While in transport and logistics, the figure is 84%, and in manufacturing 78%.
Meanwhile, even before the Iran conflict hit global energy prices, over half (53%) of Norfolk businesses said utilities were a cost pressure (the same as Q4 2025/26). The pressure is highest in the hospitality sector (75%) and manufacturing (60%).
Tax remains the biggest concern
Despite concern easing, tax remains the biggest worry for business, cited by 65% of firms (down from 77% in Q4). 39% remain concerned about inflation. Interestingly, tax is a bigger concern in Norfolk than nationally, and inflation is less of a concern. This could be due to our much higher proportion of agri-food and agri-tech businesses and a correlation with changes to business and agricultural property relief.
Levels of concern about business rates rose in the first few months of the year, ahead of revaluation. 55% of responding firms in Norfolk cited business rates as a concern, up from 40% in Q4.
Investment levels remain in negative territory
With businesses facing a raft of persistent cost pressures, investment levels in plant, machinery and equipment are stuck in negative territory for the sixth quarter in a row. Nearly one third (31%) of Norfolk businesses say they have cut back on investment plans, while 50% say they have remained unchanged, and just 25% of firms have increased their plans.
Nationally, the issue is more marked in certain sectors. A third of hospitality firms (33%) and retail businesses (32%) reported they’d scaled back investment plans.
Sales indicators improved slightly post-Budget
Across the country, the percentage of responding businesses reporting increased domestic sales rose slightly to 32% (29% in Q4). 42% reported no change, and just over a quarter (26%) said they had seen a decrease in sales. Sectoral breakdowns show that increased sales were at their lowest among transport (25%) and manufacturers (26%).
Price rise expectations remained elevated
Even before the likely inflationary impact of the Iran conflict, 48% of responding firms in Norfolk said they were likely to raise prices over the coming quarter. 49% said their prices were likely to remain the same, and only 3% were expecting to cut prices.
Jack Weaver, Chief Operating Officer at Norfolk Chambers of Commerce, said:
“Even before this new conflict in the Middle East, business sentiment remained fragile and stuck with persistently low growth.
“Most SMEs continue to report no improvement in investment and cash flow. Sentiment remains largely unchanged since the 2024 Budget, which saw a permanent increase in the labour costs.
“Businesses face a fresh wave of employer costs and burdens from this month, causing further pressure and uncertainty.
“But the Iran conflict is now the major factor that could derail fragile progress. We are already seeing early impacts, with firms reporting rising energy and shipping costs, echoing the initial stages of previous global shocks. These new pressures will disproportionately impact energy-intensive industries and those trading with the Middle East. But the second-order consequences of higher inflation, increased input costs, and potential increased interest rates will feed into all corners of the economy.
“De-escalation is the only way to prevent a deeper economic crisis. As energy costs rise, the government should keep all options on the table to help businesses. In the longer term, breaking out of this low-momentum cycle will require the government delivering the industrial strategy, boosting and diversifying our exports, and the broader adoption of AI to drive productivity.”